# AMIS revises global wheat and corn forecast; warns on Black Sea bottleneck

> AMIS raised its 2026/27 global wheat production forecast to 819.1 million tonnes and its corn forecast to 1.318 billion tonnes, citing improved production prospects in several countries. It expects wheat trade to fall as shipments from Russia and Ukraine face logistical constraints, while wheat ending stocks rise; corn utilization was also raised on stronger bioethanol demand in Brazil and the US.

- Date: 2026-11-10 · published 2026-11-10T15:14:55.778Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/91960-amis-revises-global-wheat-and-corn-forecast-warns-on-black-sea-bottleneck
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Ethanol](https://feedsoft.ai/c/ETHANOL.md)

## Why it matters

Higher output and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, but reduced Black Sea export flows could limit wheat availability in import markets and support prices. Stronger ethanol use adds demand support for corn.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bearish ▼
- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼
- ETHANOL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-01-15 | [Wasde: Black Sea revisions add 2 million tonnes to global wheat balances - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32183-wasde-black-sea-revisions-add-2-million-tonnes-to-global-wheat-balances.md) | +0.9% | -1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-02-09 | [USDA cuts global ending stocks for beans, wheat, cotton and corn - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42671-usda-cuts-global-ending-stocks-for-beans-wheat-cotton-and-corn-pro-farmer.md) | +0.4% | +18.0% |
| WHEAT | 2023-03-20 | [Australian wheat holds its ground amid Black Sea return to Asia \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36898-australian-wheat-holds-its-ground-amid-black-sea-return-to-asia-s-and-p-global.md) | -3.3% | +1.0% |
| WHEAT | 2022-05-28 | [Coceral Association raises forecast for soft wheat in EU and UK after rains](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41356-coceral-association-raises-forecast-for-soft-wheat-in-eu-and-uk-after-rains.md) | -2.1% | -3.9% |
| WHEAT | 2021-11-09 | [France raises crop forecasts for wheat, maize and](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43990-france-raises-crop-forecasts-for-wheat-maize-and.md) | +1.8% | +0.7% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-12-19 | [USDA lifts 2025-26 global wheat stocks forecast as higher output offsets record demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21549-usda-lifts-2025-26-global-wheat-stocks-forecast-as-higher-output-offsets-record.md) | +3.2% | +1.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-05-13 | [USDA forecasts intense competition on wheat, corn - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53176-usda-forecasts-intense-competition-on-wheat-corn-grain-central.md) | -8.7% | -5.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2019-03-08 | [World wheat crop set for rebound: AMIS - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60025-world-wheat-crop-set-for-rebound-amis-grain-central.md) | +2.3% | +4.6% |

## Sources

- fastmarkets.com: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/amis-revises-global-wheat-and-corn-forecast-warns-on-black-sea-bottleneck/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.