# Brazil’s higher rate forecast leaves the real’s inflation test unresolved

> Brazil’s Focus survey raised the median forecast for the year-end 2026 Selic rate to 13.75% from 13.50% and nudged the year-end exchange-rate forecast to R$5.35 per dollar from R$5.34. The survey also lifted its 2027 inflation forecast to 4.90% from 4.76%, while its 2026 forecast stayed at 5.22%.

- Date: 2026-11-10 · published 2026-11-10T15:12:53.084Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/91938-brazil-s-higher-rate-forecast-leaves-the-real-s-inflation-test-unresolved
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Higher expected interest rates may support the real, but the weaker exchange-rate forecast and rising inflation expectations point to continued currency and cost uncertainty for Brazilian importers. The report is a forecast revision, not a policy change or measured inflation outcome.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2024-11-12 | [Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27618-brazil-s-real-weakens-interest-rates-climb-under-trump-effect.md) | -0.6% | +4.7% |
| USDBRL | 2019-06-27 | [Brazil's central bank slashes 2019 GDP growth forecast, sees benign inflation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58795-brazil-s-central-bank-slashes-2019-gdp-growth-forecast-sees-benign-inflation.md) | +0.2% | -1.2% |
| USDBRL | 2020-04-29 | [Decline in Brazil’s Real Underscores Need for Hedging](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53837-decline-in-brazil-s-real-underscores-need-for-hedging.md) | -0.0% | -5.1% |
| USDBRL | 2024-07-31 | [Brazil holds interest rates as expected, flags 'greater caution'](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29477-brazil-holds-interest-rates-as-expected-flags-greater-caution.md) | -0.2% | -2.7% |
| USDBRL | 2024-10-30 | [FX rate hits 2021 high as foreign investors bet against Brazilian real](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28081-fx-rate-hits-2021-high-as-foreign-investors-bet-against-brazilian-real.md) | +0.8% | +2.6% |

## Sources

- folitic.com: https://folitic.com/blogs/forex-news/brazil-focus-real-inflation-rate-forecasts

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.