# El Niño Holds at Strong Intensity as Normal Belt Rainfall Limits Near-Term Yield Risk

> The Oceanic Niño Index is at +2.5, indicating a strong El Niño, while rainfall across the Malaysian and Indonesian palm-growing belts is broadly normal. Normal rainfall is limiting immediate harvest and fruit-transport disruption, though drought stress could still affect yields six to twelve months later if drier conditions develop.

- Date: 2026-11-10 · published 2026-11-10T12:27:08.388Z
- Category: weather · region Southeast Asia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/91829-el-nino-holds-at-strong-intensity-as-normal-belt-rainfall-limits-near-term
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

The current weather conditions do not point to an immediate palm supply shock, tempering near-term weather risk to palm oil prices. Potential lagged drought effects remain a future production risk, but depend on whether dry conditions emerge in the producing regions.

## Read by commodity

- PALMOIL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2019-11-01 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: El Niño Remains Neutral](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55983-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | +12.8% | +16.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-07-24 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69873-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | +0.7% | +3.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| June Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70405-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-june-climate.md) | -0.6% | +2.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-02-21 | [As La Niña Exits, Palm Oil Production Could Rise in 2023 but Drop in 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37249-as-la-nina-exits-palm-oil-production-could-rise-in-2023-but-drop-in-2024.md) | +0.5% | -3.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-06-13 | [El Niño WATCH—everything you ever wanted to know but were afraid to ask - Social Media Blog - Bureau of Meteorology](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70411-el-nino-watch-everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know-but-were-afraid-to-ask-social.md) | +0.6% | +3.6% |

## Sources

- palmoileconomics.com: https://palmoileconomics.com/news/2026-11-10-el-ni-o-holds-at-strong-intensity-as-normal-belt

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.