# World Bank projects commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026 due to the Middle East conflict and El Niño

> The World Bank projected that commodity prices would rise 23% in 2026 and fall 7% in 2027, citing the Middle East conflict, disruptions to grain shipments and El Niño. It forecast a 32% rise in energy prices, a 14% increase in fertilizer prices, and gains of about 10% for food staples, including projected increases of 28% for wheat and 10% for corn.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-10T07:36:07.003Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/91435-world-bank-projects-commodity-prices-will-rise-23-in-2026-due-to-the-middle
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [TSP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/TSP.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Higher energy and fertilizer costs can lift crop production and transport expenses, while conflict-related shipping disruption and El Niño could constrain supply. The projections imply upward price pressure for wheat, corn and fertilizers in 2026.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- TSP: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- POTASH: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2022-04-10 | [FAS Report: "The Ukraine Conflict and Other Factors Contributing to High Commodity Prices and Food Insecurity" - Farm Policy News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14942-fas-report-the-ukraine-conflict-and-other-factors-contributing-to-high.md) | -2.4% | +3.1% |
| WHEAT | 2021-07-30 | [A new decline in crop forecasts for the US, Canada and Russia continued to raise wheat prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46103-a-new-decline-in-crop-forecasts-for-the-us-canada-and-russia-continued-to-raise.md) | +1.6% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2021-09-02 | [Global food commodity prices rebound in August](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9829-global-food-commodity-prices-rebound-in-august.md) | +1.3% | +1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-19 | [Wheat/barley price prospects on the rise; oilseeds to fall: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64497-wheat-barley-price-prospects-on-the-rise-oilseeds-to-fall-abares-grain-central.md) | -0.7% | -3.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-12-22 | [EU agricultural prices continued to rise in Q3 2022 - News articles - Eurostat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8469-eu-agricultural-prices-continued-to-rise-in-q3-2022-news-articles-eurostat.md) | +0.1% | -3.6% |
| CORN | 2026-10-28 | [WORLD BANK SAYS FERTILIZER PRICES SET TO RISE 14% IN 2026 DUE TO SURGE IN UREA PRICES, RETURNING TO 2025 LEVELS IN 2027 - CGTN](https://feedsoft.ai/events/297-world-bank-says-fertilizer-prices-set-to-rise-14-in-2026-due-to-surge-in-urea.md) | -0.5% | — |
| CORN | 2022-04-10 | [FAS Report: "The Ukraine Conflict and Other Factors Contributing to High Commodity Prices and Food Insecurity" - Farm Policy News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14942-fas-report-the-ukraine-conflict-and-other-factors-contributing-to-high.md) | +2.0% | -2.3% |
| CORN | 2017-11-30 | [Rabobank: Animal protein continues to expand around the world \| Meatpoultry.com \| November 29, 2017 21:37 \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68099-rabobank-animal-protein-continues-to-expand-around-the-world-meatpoultry-com.md) | +1.0% | +7.1% |

## Sources

- app.usesandia.com: https://app.usesandia.com/noticias/banco-mundial-proyecta-que-los-precios-de-las-materias-primas-subiran-23-en

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.