# J.P. Morgan: El Niño affects A-shares; nitrogen fertilizer exports and outdoor consumption may benefit

> J.P. Morgan expects El Niño to peak around December 2026–January 2027, then ease toward neutral conditions in summer 2027, with a possible shift to La Niña in autumn. The outlook points to a warmer-than-usual Chinese winter, with precipitation varying by region, and potentially continued agricultural stress into 2027.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-10T06:27:01.242Z
- Category: weather · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/91304-j-p-morgan-el-nino-affects-a-shares-nitrogen-fertilizer-exports-and-outdoor
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Dry, warm conditions could increase fertilizer demand and pressure crop production, while reduced hydropower generation could raise energy costs. Stronger nitrogen-fertilizer exports could support urea prices, though the article notes domestic prices may remain weak.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-04-02 | [Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming  - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19632-raising-energy-and-fertilizer-prices-and-upcoming-el-nino-main-concerns-to.md) | +1.6% | -1.2% |
| UREA | 2026-05-31 | [Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19292-wheat-futures-prices-have-surged-30-this-year-as-iran-war-hit-fertilizer.md) | -21.5% | -30.2% |
| UREA | 2026-04-29 | [Indonesia 2026 crude palm oil output to fall due to El Nino, high fertiliser prices, association says \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19818-indonesia-2026-crude-palm-oil-output-to-fall-due-to-el-nino-high-fertiliser.md) | -9.4% | -17.3% |
| UREA | 2021-04-13 | [DTN Fertilizer Outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47544-dtn-fertilizer-outlook.md) | +0.7% | -0.3% |
| UREA | 2021-03-05 | [Natural gas shortage shuts down fertilizer plants - High Plains Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48437-natural-gas-shortage-shuts-down-fertilizer-plants-high-plains-journal.md) | +5.7% | +0.8% |

## Sources

- unhidea.com: https://unhidea.com/en/articles/research-aa4c04cbea0e41f4951d5764ecbce8b7-en

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.