# Morgan Sees Room for the Real to Rise if Oil Falls and the Dollar Weakens Globally

> Morgan Stanley said a deeper decline in oil prices combined with a weaker US dollar could support emerging-market currencies and Brazilian assets. Its alternative scenario assumes Brent falls to $60 per barrel, with the DXY declining to about 98.7 from roughly 102.3; the bank said the Brazilian real could appreciate in that environment.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-10T00:10:03.050Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/90346-morgan-sees-room-for-the-real-to-rise-if-oil-falls-and-the-dollar-weakens
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Lower oil and a weaker dollar could improve conditions for the real and reduce pressure on Brazilian import costs, though the article describes a scenario rather than a forecast. A weaker dollar is generally supportive for dollar-priced commodities, while cheaper crude can weigh on energy prices.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼
- USDBRL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-12-10 | [Diesel Futures Slide as ULSD Market Weakens and Inventories Rise Across Global Oil Markets - oftrb.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21714-diesel-futures-slide-as-ulsd-market-weakens-and-inventories-rise-across-global.md) | -4.6% | +0.6% |
| BRENT | 2018-02-02 | [Oil prices fall as US stock market slumps and dollar strengthens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66659-oil-prices-fall-as-us-stock-market-slumps-and-dollar-strengthens.md) | -6.3% | -5.6% |
| BRENT | 2018-12-20 | [The Canadian dollar and the price at the gas pump: Why you can’t win for losing - The Globe and Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61782-the-canadian-dollar-and-the-price-at-the-gas-pump-why-you-can-t-win-for-losing.md) | -8.1% | +10.6% |
| BRENT | 2023-11-01 | [Oil falls to settle at 3-week low as Fed policy stance lifts dollar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33077-oil-falls-to-settle-at-3-week-low-as-fed-policy-stance-lifts-dollar.md) | -5.3% | -6.2% |
| BRENT | 2020-10-29 | [Oil falls more than 3%, on track for worst week since April](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50799-oil-falls-more-than-3-on-track-for-worst-week-since-april.md) | +5.1% | +24.6% |
| DXY | 2025-06-25 | [GBP: Is there room for sterling to make gains against the dollar?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24476-gbp-is-there-room-for-sterling-to-make-gains-against-the-dollar.md) | -0.8% | -0.7% |
| DXY | 2025-05-19 | [Dollar set for more weakness as 'Brand USA' falls further out of favor \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24861-dollar-set-for-more-weakness-as-brand-usa-falls-further-out-of-favor-reuters.md) | -1.4% | -2.4% |
| DXY | 2018-02-28 | [Japanese yen may strengthen as dollar weakens: Morgan Stanley and ING](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66740-japanese-yen-may-strengthen-as-dollar-weakens-morgan-stanley-and-ing.md) | -0.1% | -0.5% |

## Sources

- infomoney.com.br: https://www.infomoney.com.br/mercados/morgan-ve-espaco-para-alta-do-real-se-petroleo-cair-e-dolar-perder-forca-global/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.