# FAO Forecasts Decline in Global Wheat Production and Trade Amid Rising Cereal Stocks in 2026/27

> The FAO projected 2026 global cereal production to fall 1.7% year over year, including a 2.8% decline in wheat output to 819.1 million tonnes. International wheat trade was forecast to fall 8.6%, while global cereal stocks were projected to rise to 974.7 million tonnes; maize trade was expected to grow and rice trade to increase as production fell.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T21:15:05.646Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/90218-fao-forecasts-decline-in-global-wheat-production-and-trade-amid-rising-cereal
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Lower wheat output and trade may support wheat prices, but rising cereal stocks could cushion the supply squeeze. Reduced rice production alongside higher consumption could also lend support to rice prices.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-03-03 | [Global cereal stocks falling in 2022/23; early prospects point to a decline in wheat production in 2023 – FAO](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12656-global-cereal-stocks-falling-in-2022-23-early-prospects-point-to-a-decline-in.md) | -2.6% | +4.7% |
| WHEAT | 2020-07-14 | [Global wheat production on the decline - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52052-global-wheat-production-on-the-decline-grain-central.md) | +0.4% | -1.8% |
| WHEAT | 2021-08-16 | [Barley prices rise amid lower global production forecast for my 2021/22](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45622-barley-prices-rise-amid-lower-global-production-forecast-for-my-2021-22.md) | +1.1% | +2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2018-04-19 | [Competing for Acres: 2018/19 Global Wheat Production to Fall - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65487-competing-for-acres-2018-19-global-wheat-production-to-fall-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | +0.3% | -1.2% |
| WHEAT | 2017-06-29 | [World Wheat Production to Decline in 2017/18 - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70449-world-wheat-production-to-decline-in-2017-18-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | +2.3% | -2.9% |
| RICE | 2025-04-30 | [Growing Demand for Broken Rice for Feed and Food: The Implications for Global Trade \| Economic Research Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25195-growing-demand-for-broken-rice-for-feed-and-food-the-implications-for-global.md) | +1.0% | +8.2% |
| RICE | 2025-11-19 | [November 2025 WASDE Report is Relatively Quiet Despite Surprises in Production and Exports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21972-november-2025-wasde-report-is-relatively-quiet-despite-surprises-in-production.md) | -1.7% | -9.4% |
| RICE | 2024-01-05 | [Global food prices fell in 2023 compared to 2022, except for sugar and rice \| PBS News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6743-global-food-prices-fell-in-2023-compared-to-2022-except-for-sugar-and-rice-pbs.md) | +1.4% | +8.9% |

## Sources

- insights.tridge.com: https://insights.tridge.com/speaker-product-news-reports/KJLyFXpzJzgKuB1Gqsm5QUKHGgR43AVdqLB9zeab8y3vfUHwK5FBZfpA

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.