# El Niño Builds, But Normal Belt Rainfall Keeps Palm Yields in Play

> A strong El Niño is developing, but rainfall across Malaysia’s and Indonesia’s palm-producing regions is currently near normal. Any drought-related reduction in palm yields is expected to lag by six to twelve months; Malaysia’s September data showed production rising 16.5% month on month, stocks increasing 31.9%, and exports falling 12.1%.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T21:14:05.503Z
- Category: weather · region Southeast Asia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/90204-el-nino-builds-but-normal-belt-rainfall-keeps-palm-yields-in-play
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Normal rainfall limits the immediate risk of supply disruption, while the potential yield impact is mainly a concern for next year. High Malaysian stocks and weaker exports add near-term pressure to palm oil prices.

## Read by commodity

- PALMOIL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2017-03-07 | [Global palm oil output seen rising 11pc in 2017 \| Malay Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72112-global-palm-oil-output-seen-rising-11pc-in-2017-malay-mail.md) | -4.1% | -7.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2021-06-08 | [Malaysia 2021 palm oil output seen up on better weather, yield - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46461-malaysia-2021-palm-oil-output-seen-up-on-better-weather-yield-ukragroconsult.md) | -11.7% | -7.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-10-04 | [Palm oil production to revive following departure of El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5643-palm-oil-production-to-revive-following-departure-of-el-nino.md) | +0.9% | +2.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-28 | [Malaysia 2024 palm oil output to rise despite El Nino - govt \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34218-malaysia-2024-palm-oil-output-to-rise-despite-el-nino-govt-reuters.md) | -2.3% | -3.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-08-16 | [Bumper crops weighing on palm oil prices in Southeast Asia - Nikkei Asia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69557-bumper-crops-weighing-on-palm-oil-prices-in-southeast-asia-nikkei-asia.md) | +1.6% | +10.0% |

## Sources

- palmoileconomics.com: https://palmoileconomics.com/news/2026-11-09-el-ni-o-builds-but-normal-belt-rainfall-keeps-pa

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.