# El Niño could cause the loss of “one Mato Grosso do Sul’s worth of soybeans” in the 2026/27 crop, Serasa projects

> A Serasa Experian study simulates that a strong Super El Niño could reduce Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean harvest by 17.6 million tonnes, with losses concentrated in Mato Grosso and Goiás. The estimate implies a potential R$33 billion impact on the crop’s gross production value and compares historical yields under strong El Niño and neutral conditions; it is a scenario simulation, not a crop forecast.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T21:12:07.111Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/90195-el-nino-could-cause-the-loss-of-one-mato-grosso-do-sul-s-worth-of-soybeans-in
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

The modeled yield loss would materially tighten Brazil’s soybean supply and could lift soybean prices if adverse El Niño conditions translate into actual crop damage. The figure is scenario-based, so its market effect depends on weather developments and realized yields.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2024-02-27 | [Soybean Yields Disappoint in Southern Mato Grosso do Sul](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13592-soybean-yields-disappoint-in-southern-mato-grosso-do-sul.md) | +1.0% | +6.4% |
| SOY | 2024-01-10 | [Severe weather punishes soybean production in Mato Grosso](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13597-severe-weather-punishes-soybean-production-in-mato-grosso.md) | -2.9% | -4.2% |
| SOY | 2025-11-07 | [Lack of rain in Mato Grosso threatens the 2025/26 harvest - Cultivar Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13462-lack-of-rain-in-mato-grosso-threatens-the-2025-26-harvest-cultivar-magazine.md) | +3.7% | +1.2% |
| SOY | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -0.4% | -6.4% |
| SOY | 2026-02-11 | [Lack of rain pressures corn and soybeans in the South](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13451-lack-of-rain-pressures-corn-and-soybeans-in-the-south.md) | +1.0% | +6.9% |

## Sources

- vidaboiadeira.com.br: https://www.vidaboiadeira.com.br/noticia/1401/goiania/noticias/el-nino-pode-gerar-perda-de-ldquo-um-mato-grosso-do-sul-de-soja-rdquo-na-safra-2026-27-projeta-serasa-entenda-aqui.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.