# Global Cereal Production Remains High Despite Decline in Rice and Wheat Output

> The FAO forecasts 2026 global cereal production at 2,999 million tonnes, near record levels but below the 2025 peak. Rice output is projected to fall 2.5% to 552 million tonnes and wheat production is also expected to decline, while cereal consumption edges up 0.2%, stocks rise 1.8%, and global cereal trade contracts 3.3%.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T21:06:18.262Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/90129-global-cereal-production-remains-high-despite-decline-in-rice-and-wheat-output
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Sorghum](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SORGHUM.md)

## Why it matters

Lower rice and wheat output, alongside rising consumption and reduced trade, could tighten exportable supply and support prices. Near-record overall production and higher stocks could limit the strength of that pressure.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: neutral
- SORGHUM: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2017-10-28 | [U.S. rice production, consumption and… \| PB Commercial](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68537-u-s-rice-production-consumption-and-pb-commercial.md) | -2.3% | +6.5% |
| RICE | 2021-07-22 | [India’s grain production to reach new record highs  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46030-india-s-grain-production-to-reach-new-record-highs-world-grain.md) | +2.6% | -0.2% |
| RICE | 2023-03-02 | [Global food prices decline further in January](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12653-global-food-prices-decline-further-in-january.md) | -6.9% | +3.1% |
| RICE | 2025-11-19 | [November 2025 WASDE Report is Relatively Quiet Despite Surprises in Production and Exports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21972-november-2025-wasde-report-is-relatively-quiet-despite-surprises-in-production.md) | -1.7% | -9.4% |
| RICE | 2020-04-14 | [COVID-19 lifts prices despite big wheat stocks: USDA - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53684-covid-19-lifts-prices-despite-big-wheat-stocks-usda-grain-central.md) | +1.6% | +17.3% |
| WHEAT | 2020-07-14 | [Global wheat production on the decline - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52052-global-wheat-production-on-the-decline-grain-central.md) | +0.4% | -1.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-03-03 | [Global cereal stocks falling in 2022/23; early prospects point to a decline in wheat production in 2023 – FAO](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12656-global-cereal-stocks-falling-in-2022-23-early-prospects-point-to-a-decline-in.md) | -2.6% | +4.7% |
| WHEAT | 2021-08-17 | [USDA slashes global wheat production - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45538-usda-slashes-global-wheat-production-grain-central.md) | +0.1% | +3.4% |

## Sources

- insights.tridge.com: https://insights.tridge.com/speaker-product-news-reports/KJLyFXpzJzgKuB1Gqsm5QUKHGgR43AVdqLUMfctVeKWNsy1WYzMwBTrA

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.