# Black Sea port closures could raise global wheat prices by 18–24% in 2027 - Commonwealth Bank

> Commonwealth Bank analyst Dennis Voznesenski forecast that if Black Sea shipping routes remain closed, wheat prices could rise 18–24% in 2027; reopening ports early in the year could keep prices near current levels. A prolonged closure would leave Ukraine and Russia with about 60% of their pre-July export capacity, while lower wheat output among major exporters and reduced winter-wheat plantings in Europe, Ukraine and Russia could further tighten supply. The analyst also expects barley prices to rise substantially if port restrictions persist.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T19:38:58.024Z
- Category: logistics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/90105-black-sea-port-closures-could-raise-global-wheat-prices-by-18-24-in-2027
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Disrupted Black Sea export capacity would reduce available wheat and barley on world markets, supporting prices; the projected wheat increase depends on ports remaining closed.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-02-24 | [Russian wheat prices hold as storms snarl Black Sea shipments \| World Ports Organization](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14137-russian-wheat-prices-hold-as-storms-snarl-black-sea-shipments-world-ports.md) | +0.6% | +0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2026-10-09 | [As Black Sea routes stall, Russian Baltic ports ramp up grain capacity by 170 per cent \| World Ports Organization](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14079-as-black-sea-routes-stall-russian-baltic-ports-ramp-up-grain-capacity-by-170.md) | +4.0% | +4.0% |
| WHEAT | 2026-10-22 | [Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14076-russian-grain-exports-collapse-fourfold-as-black-sea-ports-stall.md) | -0.7% | — |
| WHEAT | 2026-03-10 | [Black Sea freight rates rise amid soaring bunker fuel prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20360-black-sea-freight-rates-rise-amid-soaring-bunker-fuel-prices.md) | -1.3% | -1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2020-04-28 | [Ukraine's Apr 18-24 sea port grain exports down 36% wk/wk — Latifundist.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53494-ukraine-s-apr-18-24-sea-port-grain-exports-down-36-wk-wk-latifundist-com.md) | +2.8% | +2.6% |

## Sources

- my.ua: https://my.ua/news/cluster/2026-11-09-zakrittia-portiv-chornogo-moria-mozhe-pidvishchiti-svitovi-tsini-na-pshenitsiu-na-18-24-u-2027-rotsi-commonwealth-bank

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.