# Decline in Russian Grain Exports: What Lies Ahead for Prices and the Market?

> Russia’s projected wheat exports were lowered to 39.5 million tonnes, while the forecast for total grain exports fell to 49.5 million tonnes, amid transport and logistics difficulties in the Black Sea region. The conflict is disrupting traditional export routes, prompting Russia to consider alternatives such as the port of Murmansk.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T19:38:50.851Z
- Category: logistics · region Russia / Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/90104-decline-in-russian-grain-exports-what-lies-ahead-for-prices-and-the-market
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Reduced Russian export availability could support global wheat prices, although ample supplies from Australia, Argentina and other producers may limit the upside.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-04 | [Russia’s grain exports fell 38% in July due to port attacks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12809-russia-s-grain-exports-fell-38-in-july-due-to-port-attacks.md) | +0.1% | +5.3% |
| WHEAT | 2024-02-02 | [Weekly highlights - What the Red Sea shipping disruptions mean for grain prices - Graintab](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31561-weekly-highlights-what-the-red-sea-shipping-disruptions-mean-for-grain-prices.md) | -1.6% | -8.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-25 | [Russia’s wheat exports to Egypt: Why shipping costs are rising despite lower prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18113-russia-s-wheat-exports-to-egypt-why-shipping-costs-are-rising-despite-lower.md) | +1.7% | +4.5% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-03 | [Freight rates for grain exports from Ukraine have increased \| Ukrainian and World Shipping News - Ukrainian Shipping Magazine - Ukrainian and World Shipping News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25783-freight-rates-for-grain-exports-from-ukraine-have-increased-ukrainian-and-world.md) | -3.4% | +0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2025-05-15 | [Grain transshipment at Russian ports fell by more than 50% in 2025](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14208-grain-transshipment-at-russian-ports-fell-by-more-than-50-in-2025.md) | -3.9% | -3.2% |

## Sources

- agro.bg: https://agro.bg/novini/pazari/spad-v-iznosa-na-zarno-ot-rusiya-prognozi-geopolitika-i-otrazhenie-varhu-tsenite/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.