# Focus: Market Raises Selic Projection and Cuts GDP Estimate for 2026

> Brazilian analysts raised their forecast for the 2026 Selic rate from 13.50% to 13.75% and lowered expected GDP growth from 1.76% to 1.75%, according to the Central Bank’s Focus survey. They also nudged the 2026 dollar forecast from R$5.34 to R$5.35; the 2026 inflation projection held at 5.22%.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T15:24:20.635Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/89813-focus-market-raises-selic-projection-and-cuts-gdp-estimate-for-2026
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Higher expected interest rates and a weaker growth outlook may weigh on domestic demand, while the slightly weaker real can raise the local-currency cost of imported feed and fertilizer. The reported changes are small and do not indicate a direct shift in commodity supply.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2026-07-29 | [Rabobank flags BRL downside as rate differentials narrow and fiscal risks rise ahead of 2026 elections - VT Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18565-rabobank-flags-brl-downside-as-rate-differentials-narrow-and-fiscal-risks-rise.md) | -0.0% | +0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2024-10-23 | [Market braces for pressure on Brazilian real as Trump’s chances rise](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28085-market-braces-for-pressure-on-brazilian-real-as-trump-s-chances-rise.md) | +0.6% | +1.4% |
| USDBRL | 2024-07-15 | [Brazil: the real economy and markets - the quest for synchronicity](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29481-brazil-the-real-economy-and-markets-the-quest-for-synchronicity.md) | +1.9% | +1.0% |
| USDBRL | 2024-09-12 | [Brazilian market has firm prices and new area cut in the summer corn crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13549-brazilian-market-has-firm-prices-and-new-area-cut-in-the-summer-corn-crop.md) | -2.9% | -1.2% |
| USDBRL | 2026-09-01 | [Election Angst Fuels Bruising Week in Brazil Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18109-election-angst-fuels-bruising-week-in-brazil-markets.md) | -1.9% | +1.0% |

## Sources

- exame.com: https://exame.com/economia/focus-mercado-eleva-projecao-da-selic-e-reduz-estimativa-para-o-pib-em-2026/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.