# COP31: El Niño could cause $11trn in losses in the next six years

> A report launched at COP31 by Türkiye’s Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and IFAD estimates that a severe El Niño could cause $11 trillion in lost country income over the next five to six years. It also describes how 2026 energy and fertilizer shocks raised costs across food production, processing and distribution, particularly for small-scale farmers.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T15:17:43.626Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/89776-cop31-el-nino-could-cause-11trn-in-losses-in-the-next-six-years
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

The estimate highlights the potential for climate and input-cost shocks to damage farm output and food-system activity worldwide. It signals broad production risk, but does not identify a specific commodity price move.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2017-11-14 | [Is This the Year of Super Corn?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67835-is-this-the-year-of-super-corn.md) | +0.2% | +3.1% |
| CORN | 2021-05-13 | [Column: USDA less worried about next year's corn supply than the market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47038-column-usda-less-worried-about-next-year-s-corn-supply-than-the-market.md) | -7.7% | -2.2% |
| CORN | 2019-09-13 | [Milk price highest in 5 years \| TheFencePost.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57230-milk-price-highest-in-5-years-thefencepost-com.md) | +3.9% | +5.5% |
| CORN | 2019-08-13 | [Surprise WASDE Sends Corn to Limit Losses](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57547-surprise-wasde-sends-corn-to-limit-losses.md) | -3.3% | -8.2% |
| CORN | 2017-04-18 | [New Season Wheat Yield In The EU To Grow](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71428-new-season-wheat-yield-in-the-eu-to-grow.md) | -0.6% | +1.5% |
| SOY | 2024-06-04 | [Argentina’s soybean sales level is the lowest in the last 6 years](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13920-argentina-s-soybean-sales-level-is-the-lowest-in-the-last-6-years.md) | +0.3% | -1.6% |
| SOY | 2019-09-13 | [Milk price highest in 5 years \| TheFencePost.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57230-milk-price-highest-in-5-years-thefencepost-com.md) | +1.1% | +4.6% |
| SOY | 2019-08-13 | [Surprise WASDE Sends Corn to Limit Losses](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57547-surprise-wasde-sends-corn-to-limit-losses.md) | -0.9% | -0.3% |

## Sources

- edie.net: https://www.edie.net/cop31-el-nino-could-cause-11trn-in-losses-in-the-next-six-years/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.