# SovEcon cuts forecast for Russian wheat exports in 2026/27 to 36 million tonnes

> SovEcon cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat exports by 0.7 million tonnes to 36.0 million tonnes and lowered its total grain export forecast to 43.6 million tonnes from 44.7 million. Alternative routes have not fully offset Black Sea disruptions, and monthly grain exports remain 40–50% below normal; railcar shortages, the end of river navigation and seasonal storms may further constrain shipments.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T15:15:54.092Z
- Category: logistics · region Russia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/89761-sovecon-cuts-forecast-for-russian-wheat-exports-in-2026-27-to-36-million-tonnes
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Russian export availability could tighten global wheat supply and support prices, particularly if Black Sea disruption persists. The agency also cited significant upside price risks if shipment problems continue.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-02-10 | [Rouen's weekly wheat exports drop to 39,700 tonnes - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37326-rouen-s-weekly-wheat-exports-drop-to-39-700-tonnes-fastmarkets.md) | -2.5% | -9.0% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-29 | [Russia grain export forecast cut as Azov navigation remains closed - The Sizov Report blog](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14100-russia-grain-export-forecast-cut-as-azov-navigation-remains-closed-the-sizov.md) | -1.4% | +4.9% |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-28 | [Russia Taps Smaller Ports to Keep Up Record Wheat Export Pace - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64375-russia-taps-smaller-ports-to-keep-up-record-wheat-export-pace-bloomberg.md) | -4.2% | +0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-04 | [Russia’s grain exports fell 38% in July due to port attacks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12809-russia-s-grain-exports-fell-38-in-july-due-to-port-attacks.md) | +0.1% | +5.3% |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-25 | [Russia’s wheat exports to Egypt: Why shipping costs are rising despite lower prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18113-russia-s-wheat-exports-to-egypt-why-shipping-costs-are-rising-despite-lower.md) | +1.7% | +4.5% |

## Sources

- ru.themoscowtimes.com: https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/11/09/sovekon-snizil-prognoz-eksporta-pshenitsy-iz-rf-v-sezone-202627-do-36-mln-t-a210818

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.