# EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

> EUR/USD rose toward 1.1160 as a hawkish European Central Bank outlook supported the euro, though the article said the pair’s longer-term bias remained bearish. Oil prices fell amid rising hopes for restraint and diplomacy in the Middle East, while stronger-than-expected US payrolls reinforced expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T15:10:04.889Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/89674-eur-usd-oil-forecast-two-trades-to-watch
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

A more hawkish ECB outlook can support the euro, while stronger US data may support the dollar and limit EUR/USD gains. Reduced perceived risk of Middle East escalation pressured crude prices.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼
- EURUSD: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2023-11-27 | [EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Outlook Turning Brighter for Europe \| Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33382-eur-usd-weekly-forecast-outlook-turning-brighter-for-europe-investing-com.md) | -0.5% | +0.7% |
| EURUSD | 2024-05-31 | [EUR/USD outlook hinges on key upcoming macro events – Forex Friday](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30470-eur-usd-outlook-hinges-on-key-upcoming-macro-events-forex-friday.md) | +0.4% | -1.2% |
| EURUSD | 2024-07-26 | [EUR/USD appreciates to near 1.0850 ahead of US PCE inflation — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29489-eur-usd-appreciates-to-near-1-0850-ahead-of-us-pce-inflation-octa.md) | -0.7% | +2.3% |
| EURUSD | 2021-01-28 | [FX: Challenging our bearish dollar forecast \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49343-fx-challenging-our-bearish-dollar-forecast-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.6% | +1.1% |
| EURUSD | 2024-09-12 | [ECB dents traders' hopes for October rate cut](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28527-ecb-dents-traders-hopes-for-october-rate-cut.md) | +0.9% | -0.6% |
| BRENT | 2019-05-24 | [Oil Falls As US-China Trade War, Demand Make 'Recipe for Disaster' - Business Insider](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9797-oil-falls-as-us-china-trade-war-demand-make-recipe-for-disaster-business-insider.md) | -3.6% | -3.6% |
| BRENT | 2025-04-28 | [Barclays cuts 2025 Brent crude forecast on trade tensions, OPEC+ shifts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25323-barclays-cuts-2025-brent-crude-forecast-on-trade-tensions-opec-shifts.md) | -8.2% | -2.7% |
| BRENT | 2021-12-01 | [Oil prices sink again as traders use Omicron as an excuse to hit 'sell' \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6300-oil-prices-sink-again-as-traders-use-omicron-as-an-excuse-to-hit-sell-reuters.md) | +6.8% | +9.0% |

## Sources

- forex.com: https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/eur-usd-oil-forecast-two-trades-to-watch-91126/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.