# El Niño could impact your espresso, but not as soon as you think

> Record coffee production is forecast for Brazil and Vietnam in the 2026–27 season, while El Niño could threaten subsequent harvests. In Brazil, disrupted rainfall and temperatures during flowering are among the risks that could affect future crops.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T12:15:46.809Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil, Vietnam · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/89418-el-nino-could-impact-your-espresso-but-not-as-soon-as-you-think
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Potential weather damage to future harvests in two major coffee-producing countries could tighten coffee supply and lift coffee prices, but no listed feed commodity is directly implicated. Record output in the current season provides a near-term supply cushion.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2024-03-04 | [El Niño weakens but impacts continue](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31121-el-nino-weakens-but-impacts-continue.md) | +5.1% | +2.0% |
| CORN | 2023-04-20 | [El Niño could bring severe weather, impacting U.S. grain \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36315-el-nino-could-bring-severe-weather-impacting-u-s-grain-feed-and-grain.md) | -1.0% | -9.9% |
| CORN | 2023-05-02 | [Anticipating The Impact of El Niño on Food Security](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35871-anticipating-the-impact-of-el-nino-on-food-security.md) | +2.7% | -5.8% |
| CORN | 2019-06-15 | [Weak El Niño could continue through summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58502-weak-el-nino-could-continue-through-summer.md) | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| CORN | 2026-09-05 | [AgroENSO Maps El Niño Impacts on Argentina Crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17399-agroenso-maps-el-nino-impacts-on-argentina-crops.md) | +0.4% | +1.9% |
| SOY | 2024-03-04 | [El Niño weakens but impacts continue](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31121-el-nino-weakens-but-impacts-continue.md) | +2.4% | +3.7% |
| SOY | 2023-04-20 | [El Niño could bring severe weather, impacting U.S. grain \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36315-el-nino-could-bring-severe-weather-impacting-u-s-grain-feed-and-grain.md) | -4.7% | -11.3% |
| SOY | 2023-05-02 | [Anticipating The Impact of El Niño on Food Security](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35871-anticipating-the-impact-of-el-nino-on-food-security.md) | +1.0% | -10.9% |

## Sources

- weather.com: https://weather.com/2026/11/09/home-garden-food/el-nino-impact-coffee-espresso-prices

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.