# What Does a Strong El Niño Winter Mean for Next Year’s Crop Yields?

> The article examines how crops performed in the year following past strong El Niño winters, comparing state yields with trend-line expectations. It reports that winter wheat yields in the Plains were notably above normal in some states, including an average 18% increase in South Dakota and 14% in Nebraska.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T12:13:40.592Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/89404-what-does-a-strong-el-nino-winter-mean-for-next-year-s-crop-yields
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

The historical results suggest El Niño may affect next year’s regional wheat yields, potentially easing supply concerns in parts of the Plains if similar patterns recur.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2019-05-24 | [Strong El Niño this year appears unlikely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59007-strong-el-nino-this-year-appears-unlikely.md) | -12.2% | -6.1% |
| WHEAT | 2016-11-29 | [Monster crop harvest review, what’s next? \| NSW](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73812-monster-crop-harvest-review-what-s-next-nsw.md) | +3.4% | +3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2020-05-05 | [Winter Crop Outlook Australia: Strong Rebound](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53071-winter-crop-outlook-australia-strong-rebound.md) | -1.7% | -1.0% |
| WHEAT | 2020-07-01 | [What do bumper Oz crops mean for your price? Grain Market Daily \| AHDB](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52066-what-do-bumper-oz-crops-mean-for-your-price-grain-market-daily-ahdb.md) | -6.3% | -5.0% |
| WHEAT | 2022-06-06 | [East coast wet won't downgrade winter crop yield prospects says ABARES  \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40888-east-coast-wet-won-t-downgrade-winter-crop-yield-prospects-says-abares-farm.md) | +0.1% | -0.9% |

## Sources

- southernagtoday.org: https://southernagtoday.org/2026/11/09/what-does-a-strong-el-nino-winter-mean-for-next-years-crop-yields/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.