# Fewer Mexican Cattle, Higher U.S. Prices?

> Research modeled the effects of Mexican feeder cattle imports to the United States remaining below historical levels through 2031, following restrictions introduced in 2025 over New World screwworm concerns. It projected that fewer imports would leave US cattle prices higher than otherwise, even if cattle retained in Mexico were fed and processed there, adding Mexican beef to the market.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T09:07:59.843Z
- Category: trade · region North America · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/89107-fewer-mexican-cattle-higher-u-s-prices
- Commodities: [Live Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/LCATTLE.md), [Feeder Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/FCATTLE.md), [Chicken](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CHICKEN.md)

## Why it matters

Reduced Mexican feeder cattle flows would tighten US cattle availability and support US cattle prices, while greater Mexican beef production could add competition in beef markets. The study projects that the latter would not fully offset the price effect of lower imports.

## Read by commodity

- CHICKEN: neutral
- FCATTLE: bullish ▲
- LCATTLE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LCATTLE | 2026-10-27 | [U.S. Cattle Prices Face New Pressure as Mexican Imports Remain Restricted](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17082-u-s-cattle-prices-face-new-pressure-as-mexican-imports-remain-restricted.md) | -3.0% | — |
| LCATTLE | 2025-02-28 | [Beef prices may rise as Canadian ranchers shrink cattle herds, fearing Trump tariffs](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25981-beef-prices-may-rise-as-canadian-ranchers-shrink-cattle-herds-fearing-trump.md) | -1.3% | +5.8% |
| LCATTLE | 2025-02-04 | [Record cattle prices face pressure from trade turmoil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12743-record-cattle-prices-face-pressure-from-trade-turmoil.md) | -0.9% | -5.5% |
| LCATTLE | 2026-08-25 | [Flesh-eating screwworms, beef price surge collide as Mexico resumes cattle exports to U.S. - Los Angeles Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17846-flesh-eating-screwworms-beef-price-surge-collide-as-mexico-resumes-cattle.md) | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| LCATTLE | 2026-10-27 | [US-Mexico Cattle Trade and Beef Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/580-us-mexico-cattle-trade-and-beef-markets.md) | -3.0% | — |
| FCATTLE | 2026-10-27 | [U.S. Cattle Prices Face New Pressure as Mexican Imports Remain Restricted](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17082-u-s-cattle-prices-face-new-pressure-as-mexican-imports-remain-restricted.md) | -4.1% | — |
| FCATTLE | 2025-02-28 | [Beef prices may rise as Canadian ranchers shrink cattle herds, fearing Trump tariffs](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25981-beef-prices-may-rise-as-canadian-ranchers-shrink-cattle-herds-fearing-trump.md) | -0.9% | +4.1% |
| FCATTLE | 2026-10-08 | [Weekly protein report: Feeder cattle supplies remain tight despite renewed Mexican imports
						 \| The Cattle Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17199-weekly-protein-report-feeder-cattle-supplies-remain-tight-despite-renewed.md) | +0.9% | -0.1% |

## Sources

- aginfo.net: https://www.aginfo.net/report/66547/Southeast-Regional-Ag-News/Fewer-Mexican-Cattle-Higher-U-S-Prices-

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.