# AUD/USD Weekly Outlook: RBA Hike, US Midterms and NFP Collide

> AUD/USD faces a volatile week as the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its cash rate by 25bp, with traders focused on Governor Bullock's guidance on the path beyond November. Hot US producer prices and rising crude oil have fuelled concerns about further Fed tightening, which has undermined the Australian dollar's recent rally. US midterm elections, ISM PMIs and nonfarm payrolls are also due this week.

- Date: 2026-11-01 · published 2026-11-01T12:09:22.615Z
- Category: macro · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/8903-aud-usd-weekly-outlook-rba-hike-us-midterms-and-nfp-collide
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Australian Dollar (USD per AUD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/AUDUSD.md)

## Why it matters

A hawkish RBA and a rising cash-rate peak expectation of around 5% would support the Australian dollar, while stronger US data would weigh on it. For feed buyers, currency moves shift the cost of Australian-origin and dollar-linked commodity imports, but the direct grain and oilseed price effect is limited.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: neutral
- AUDUSD: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2020-02-28 | [Richard H Clarida: US economic outlook and monetary policy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54504-richard-h-clarida-us-economic-outlook-and-monetary-policy.md) | -0.5% | +4.3% |
| DXY | 2018-12-20 | [US Federal Reserve raises rates and trims outlook for 2019 rate increases  \| The National](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61493-us-federal-reserve-raises-rates-and-trims-outlook-for-2019-rate-increases-the.md) | -0.1% | -1.1% |
| DXY | 2020-07-30 | [USD/CAD jumps to weekly highs above 1.3450 on oil selloff — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52353-usd-cad-jumps-to-weekly-highs-above-1-3450-on-oil-selloff-octa.md) | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| DXY | 2025-02-26 | [US dollar rises as economic, tariff outlook gauged](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26223-us-dollar-rises-as-economic-tariff-outlook-gauged.md) | +0.5% | -1.0% |
| DXY | 2021-07-02 | [Dollar's near-term outlook bright, but to fade in a year](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46249-dollar-s-near-term-outlook-bright-but-to-fade-in-a-year.md) | +0.1% | -0.1% |

## Sources

- forex.com: https://www.forex.com/en/news-and-analysis/aud-usd-weekly-outlook-rba-hike-us-midterms-and-nfp-collide/
- forex.com: https://www.forex.com/en-sg/news-and-analysis/aud-usd-weekly-outlook-rba-hike-us-midterms-and-nfp-collide/
- forex.com: https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/aud-usd-weekly-outlook-rba-hike-us-midterms-and-nfp-collide/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.