# FX Watch: USD/CHF and GBP/USD Setups if Softer U.S. CPI Cools Fed Hike Bets

> Markets are pricing in nearly 78% odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike in December following a strong U.S. jobs report. The article outlines possible USD/CHF and GBP/USD setups ahead of October U.S. CPI, noting that softer inflation could reduce hike bets and weigh on the dollar.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T06:11:15.881Z
- Category: macro · region United States · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/88813-fx-watch-usd-chf-and-gbp-usd-setups-if-softer-u-s-cpi-cools-fed-hike-bets
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [British Pound (USD per GBP)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/GBPUSD.md)

## Why it matters

A softer CPI reading could lower expectations for U.S. rates and pressure the dollar, while a stronger reading could support it. These are conditional market scenarios rather than a reported change in supply or demand.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bearish ▼
- GBPUSD: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2026-09-30 | [Canadian dollar firms as softer U.S. inflation weighs on rate-hike bets By Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17701-canadian-dollar-firms-as-softer-u-s-inflation-weighs-on-rate-hike-bets-by.md) | -0.1% | +0.7% |
| DXY | 2022-12-14 | [EUR/USD Turns to the Fed & the ECB, After Tuesday’s Jump on Softer US CPI Inflation \| FXCM Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38442-eur-usd-turns-to-the-fed-and-the-ecb-after-tuesday-s-jump-on-softer-us-cpi.md) | +0.2% | -2.0% |
| DXY | 2024-10-11 | [South African rand rises after U.S. data fuels Fed rate cut bets \| CNBC Africa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28156-south-african-rand-rises-after-u-s-data-fuels-fed-rate-cut-bets-cnbc-africa.md) | +0.7% | +2.0% |
| DXY | 2026-06-26 | [Ringgit outperforms major currencies after weaker US consumption data cools Fed hike bets \| Malay Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19068-ringgit-outperforms-major-currencies-after-weaker-us-consumption-data-cools-fed.md) | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| DXY | 2023-12-14 | [US dollar sinks on Fed dovish pivot, setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD \| IG AE](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8714-us-dollar-sinks-on-fed-dovish-pivot-setups-on-eur-usd-usd-jpy-gbp-usd-ig-ae.md) | -1.3% | -1.3% |

## Sources

- babypips.com: https://www.babypips.com/analysis/fx-watch-gbpusd-usdchf-setups-if-softer-us-cpi-cools-fed-hike-bets-2026-11-09

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.