# FAO November 2026: Southeast Asian rice declines, El Niño threatens the next crop

> The FAO’s November 6 crop outlook estimated global cereal production in 2026 at 2,999.5 million tons, 1.7% below the 2025 record, while milled rice output was forecast down 2.5% to about 552 million tons. In Southeast Asia, paddy production was forecast lower in Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines, among other countries, amid unfavorable weather and weak returns; the report also warned that El Niño could reduce rainfall through February 2027.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T03:15:33.296Z
- Category: report · region Southeast Asia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/88641-fao-november-2026-southeast-asian-rice-declines-el-nino-threatens-the-next-crop
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Lower rice production forecasts in key Asian producers could tighten exportable supplies and support rice prices. The overall cereal crop remains historically large, tempering the broader grain-supply implication.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2023-08-09 | [FAO Food Price Index declines in August](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34646-fao-food-price-index-declines-in-august.md) | -1.9% | +5.4% |
| RICE | 2025-12-01 | [November WASDE shows mixed crop prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21541-november-wasde-shows-mixed-crop-prices.md) | -0.9% | -5.6% |
| RICE | 2025-12-02 | [November Consumer Prices Climb 2.4% - Businesskorea](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12738-november-consumer-prices-climb-2-4-businesskorea.md) | -0.3% | -6.8% |
| RICE | 2019-11-08 | [Crop Monitor for AMIS \| No. 67 – November 2019 - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55985-crop-monitor-for-amis-no-67-november-2019-world-reliefweb.md) | -1.0% | +4.6% |
| RICE | 2023-12-07 | [Crop Monitor for Early Warning \| No. 89 – December 2023 - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32483-crop-monitor-for-early-warning-no-89-december-2023-world-reliefweb.md) | -0.1% | +1.8% |
| CORN | 2023-11-22 | [US Wheat Associates Weekly Price Report – November 22, 2023 - Oklahoma Farm Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33222-us-wheat-associates-weekly-price-report-november-22-2023-oklahoma-farm-report.md) | -3.5% | -0.9% |
| CORN | 2026-09-30 | [Russian 2026/27 Wheat Export Forecast Cut by 4.7 MMT - The Sizov Report blog](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14084-russian-2026-27-wheat-export-forecast-cut-by-4-7-mmt-the-sizov-report-blog.md) | -0.5% | -6.2% |
| CORN | 2022-12-19 | [Commodities 2023: Australia's record wheat crop to dominate Asia demand in H1](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38164-commodities-2023-australia-s-record-wheat-crop-to-dominate-asia-demand-in-h1.md) | +1.3% | +2.9% |

## Sources

- chelate.com.vn: https://chelate.com.vn/tin-nong-nghiep/fao-thang-11-2026-lua-dong-nam-a-giam-el-nino-de-doa-vu-toi

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.