# Madagascar - Food Security Outlook: Prolonged Crisis expected across the Grand South as recovery from 2025/26 lags, October 2026 - May 2027 - Madagascar

> Crisis-level food insecurity is expected to persist in Madagascar’s Grand South through May 2027 as poor households continue to face depleted food stocks, debt, and weakened livelihoods after a poor 2025/26 agricultural season. Below-average rainfall, limited seed access, and reduced planted area are expected to constrain production and incomes; assistance needs may reach 2.0–2.49 million people in February 2027.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T03:15:33.247Z
- Category: weather · region Madagascar · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/88640-madagascar-food-security-outlook-prolonged-crisis-expected-across-the-grand
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

Lower local harvests and incomes increase reliance on purchased staples, including rice, potentially tightening local availability and lifting prices. The effects are primarily regional and do not point to a material shift in global feed-commodity markets.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2023-11-03 | [El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, October 2023 - March 2024 - Mitigating the expected impacts of El Niño-induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33097-el-nino-anticipatory-action-and-response-plan-october-2023-march-2024.md) | +3.1% | +6.3% |
| RICE | 2023-07-12 | [2023/53 “Rice Production and Food Security in Southeast Asia under Threat from El Niño” by Elyssa Ludher and Paul Teng – ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5209-2023-53-rice-production-and-food-security-in-southeast-asia-under-threat-from.md) | -18.7% | -17.1% |
| RICE | 2023-08-07 | [El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, August-December 2023 - Mitigating the expected impacts of El Niño-induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34472-el-nino-anticipatory-action-and-response-plan-august-december-2023-mitigating.md) | +0.3% | +4.4% |
| RICE | 2024-08-29 | [Prolonged Monsoon Rains Threaten India’s Crop Outlook \| Headlines](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28729-prolonged-monsoon-rains-threaten-india-s-crop-outlook-headlines.md) | +2.3% | -1.4% |
| RICE | 2019-07-29 | [Food to get costlier: Inflation may rise as poor monsoon rains hit rice, food grain output - Economy News \| The Financial Express](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58050-food-to-get-costlier-inflation-may-rise-as-poor-monsoon-rains-hit-rice-food.md) | -4.0% | -10.0% |

## Sources

- reliefweb.int: https://reliefweb.int/report/madagascar/madagascar-food-security-outlook-prolonged-crisis-expected-across-grand-south-recovery-202526-lags-october-2026-may-2027

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.