# EU dairy herd forecast to shrink 1% in 2027 as milk output dips

> USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts the EU dairy herd at 18.8 million cows at the start of 2027, down 1% from 2026, and milk production down 0.3% to 149 million tonnes. Low profitability, feed-quality and availability concerns, environmental policies, and herd restructuring are cited among the factors behind the decline.

- Date: 2026-11-09 · published 2026-11-09T03:08:03.799Z
- Category: report · region EU · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/88505-eu-dairy-herd-forecast-to-shrink-1-in-2027-as-milk-output-dips
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller herd and constraints on feed availability are expected to reduce EU milk output, tightening supply and potentially supporting milk prices.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2024-12-10 | [EU dairy forecast 2025 - Food & Agribusiness](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26968-eu-dairy-forecast-2025-food-and-agribusiness.md) | -0.7% | +7.9% |
| MILK | 2024-02-13 | [2024 Milk Production Forecast Reduced, All-Milk Price Looks More Encouraging - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31825-2024-milk-production-forecast-reduced-all-milk-price-looks-more-encouraging.md) | -0.2% | +1.4% |
| MILK | 2023-11-14 | [USDA Bumps Up 2024 Price Predictions, Lowers Milk Production Forecast for 2023 - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33180-usda-bumps-up-2024-price-predictions-lowers-milk-production-forecast-for-2023.md) | +0.1% | -5.5% |
| MILK | 2023-08-17 | [USDA Raises All-Milk Price for the First Time in Months - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34587-usda-raises-all-milk-price-for-the-first-time-in-months-dairy-herd.md) | -0.6% | +6.1% |
| MILK | 2017-05-12 | [Dairy Economic Update: Less milk forecast -  \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71017-dairy-economic-update-less-milk-forecast-ag-proud.md) | 0.0% | +4.3% |

## Sources

- thedairysite.com: https://www.thedairysite.com/news/eu-dairy-herd-forecast-to-shrink-1-in-2027-as-milk-output-dips

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.