# Mathematical Model Predicts Sunflower Price Up to $400/tonne Despite Reduced Yield

> Ukraine’s sunflower crop estimate was cut from about 13 million tonnes to just over 11 million tonnes after unfavorable September weather, especially in western regions. Analyst Oleksiy Tartakivskyi expects prices to rise by $50–70 in the second half of November and December, though he sees a more realistic range of $350–370 per tonne excluding VAT; the model’s $400 forecast excludes military risks.

- Date: 2026-11-08 · published 2026-11-09T00:07:29.234Z
- Category: weather · region Ukraine · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/88194-mathematical-model-predicts-sunflower-price-up-to-400-tonne-despite-reduced
- Commodities: [Sunflower Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SUNMEAL.md)

## Why it matters

The smaller crop could tighten Ukrainian seed availability and support prices, while logistics and oil-export flows will influence how much supply reaches buyers. Reduced sunflower-oil availability may also affect European sourcing.

## Sources

- fingid.com.ua: https://fingid.com.ua/en/mathematical-model-predicts-sunflower-price-up-to-400-tonne-despite-reduced-yield

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.