# U.S. Pork Supply Outlook: Hog Slaughter, Weights and Price Trends Heading Into the Holidays - Pork Checkoff

> Preliminary estimates put US hog slaughter near 2.9 million head per week, just below last year, with weights about 1% above year-ago levels. USDA official slaughter and weight data are unavailable, and pork bellies have fallen about 25% since August.

- Date: 2025-10-21 · published 2025-10-21T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/8804-u-s-pork-supply-outlook-hog-slaughter-weights-and-price-trends-heading-into-the
- Commodities: [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md)

## Why it matters

Heavier weights and seasonal supply growth increase pork output while softening demand from fast-service restaurants later in the year, which pressures pork cutout values and hog prices. Missing USDA export data also leaves feed demand harder to assess.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: neutral
- HOGS: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBM | 2020-11-13 | [Pig outlook: Lean hog futures starting to trend down
						 \| The Pig Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50298-pig-outlook-lean-hog-futures-starting-to-trend-down-the-pig-site.md) | +1.4% | -1.0% |
| SBM | 2026-09-14 | [USDA Lifts Soybean Output Outlook, Weighing on Friday Prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10675-usda-lifts-soybean-output-outlook-weighing-on-friday-prices.md) | +1.8% | +5.5% |
| SBM | 2024-11-07 | [Chinese pork output continues slide \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27392-chinese-pork-output-continues-slide-the-western-producer.md) | -2.0% | -4.3% |
| SBM | 2020-07-28 | [U.S. a bright spot in pork production — but those prices ...](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52247-u-s-a-bright-spot-in-pork-production-but-those-prices.md) | -1.8% | -1.2% |
| SBM | 2020-06-01 | [Tightening egg supply and surge in retail demand pushed wholesale egg prices to record levels in March \| Economic Research Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52624-tightening-egg-supply-and-surge-in-retail-demand-pushed-wholesale-egg-prices-to.md) | +2.1% | -0.4% |
| HOGS | 2025-06-30 | [Pork Supply Outlook Following the June USDA Hog Survey - Pork Checkoff](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24359-pork-supply-outlook-following-the-june-usda-hog-survey-pork-checkoff.md) | -4.5% | -3.1% |
| HOGS | 2019-08-22 | [High hog supplies weigh on cash hog and pork values in US
						 \| The Pig Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57725-high-hog-supplies-weigh-on-cash-hog-and-pork-values-in-us-the-pig-site.md) | -2.6% | -10.9% |
| HOGS | 2026-06-17 | [Quarterly Review and Outlook - Pork Checkoff](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18965-quarterly-review-and-outlook-pork-checkoff.md) | -0.4% | +1.4% |

## Sources

- swineweb.com: https://swineweb.com/u-s-pork-supply-outlook-hog-slaughter-weights-and-price-trends-heading-into-the-holidays/
- porkcheckoff.org: https://www.porkcheckoff.org/news/u-s-pork-supply-outlook-hog-slaughter-weights-and-price-trends-heading-into-the-holidays/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.