# A Look at Northern States' Spring Wheat Estimates

> USDA's September report put 2017 spring wheat production at 416.2 million bushels, above the average pre-report estimate and the August figure. December spring wheat futures fell 21.25 cents after the release, though they held above the prior week's low.

- Date: 2017-09-29 · published 2017-09-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/8738-a-look-at-northern-states-spring-wheat-estimates
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Larger-than-expected northern spring wheat supply after drought losses is bearish for wheat prices and eases feed wheat substitution demand.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2017-09-29 | 5 | -7.1% | -3.8 | USDA's September small grains report raised spring wheat production to 416.2M bu, above estimates, and December spring wheat futures dropped 21.25 cents, which spilled over into SRW. |
| WHEAT | 2017-10-02 | 1 | +3.4% | 3.3 | The USDA spring wheat estimate came in above expectations and December spring wheat fell 21.25 cents, adding bearish supply pressure that carried into the next trading day. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2017-03-14 | [Global wheat estimates surge \| VIC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11206-global-wheat-estimates-surge-vic.md) | -1.6% | +0.9% |
| WHEAT | 2016-11-17 | [Strategy of grains estimates EU acreage for wheat at](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73796-strategy-of-grains-estimates-eu-acreage-for-wheat-at.md) | -2.1% | +0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2017-09-06 | [Traders look to new crop following StatsCan stocks estimates - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68934-traders-look-to-new-crop-following-statscan-stocks-estimates-agcanada.md) | +2.3% | +1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2017-07-13 | [A Shock to the Wheat Market - Northern Ag Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69888-a-shock-to-the-wheat-market-northern-ag-network.md) | -1.8% | -1.6% |
| WHEAT | 2025-04-17 | [France ups soft wheat area estimate](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25049-france-ups-soft-wheat-area-estimate.md) | +2.5% | +3.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-07-13 | [A Shock to the Wheat Market - Northern Ag Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69888-a-shock-to-the-wheat-market-northern-ag-network.md) | -5.3% | -12.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2019-10-14 | [USDA lifts global wheat stock estimates \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56500-usda-lifts-global-wheat-stock-estimates-farm-online-act.md) | +3.4% | +0.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-03-27 | [Wheat prices drop despite tighter ending stocks \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25627-wheat-prices-drop-despite-tighter-ending-stocks-the-western-producer.md) | +0.6% | -4.8% |

## Sources

- dtnpf.com: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/Ag/blogs/canada-markets/blog-post/2017/09/29/look-northern-states-spring-wheat

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.