# Farm terms of trade fall 15.8% in 2026 as milk prices drop 18.1% and fertiliser costs rise 18%

> Ireland’s Central Statistics Office preliminary estimates show agricultural output prices fell 10.3% in 2026 from 2025, while farm input prices rose 6.5%, reducing farmers’ terms of trade by 15.8%. Milk prices fell 18.1%, fertiliser prices rose 18%, and energy costs increased 17.9%.

- Date: 2026-11-08 · published 2026-11-08T06:16:47.552Z
- Category: report · region Ireland · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/87118-farm-terms-of-trade-fall-15-8-in-2026-as-milk-prices-drop-18-1-and-fertiliser
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Lower milk returns alongside higher fertiliser and energy costs squeeze farm margins and may weigh on dairy production incentives, while higher input costs raise expenses for crop and feed production. The figures point to bearish milk-price pressure but potential cost support for fertiliser.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2023-01-30 | [All Milk Prices Expected To Drop In 2023](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5878-all-milk-prices-expected-to-drop-in-2023.md) | -8.0% | -8.4% |
| MILK | 2020-04-24 | [Dairy prices fall as milk production rises](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6500-dairy-prices-fall-as-milk-production-rises.md) | -13.8% | -7.5% |
| MILK | 2025-10-15 | [Global Milk Prices Fall 1.5% in September as Supply Growth Outpaces Demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22412-global-milk-prices-fall-1-5-in-september-as-supply-growth-outpaces-demand.md) | +0.4% | +1.8% |
| MILK | 2025-12-04 | [U.S. Milk Output Rises as Class Prices Drop Sharply - RFD-TV](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4085-u-s-milk-output-rises-as-class-prices-drop-sharply-rfd-tv.md) | +1.0% | -4.6% |
| MILK | 2025-03-06 | [February 2025 Class II, III and IV milk prices lower \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4704-february-2025-class-ii-iii-and-iv-milk-prices-lower-ag-proud.md) | +1.8% | -6.1% |
| UREA | 2020-12-23 | [Fertilizer prices to rise moderately in 2021](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49583-fertilizer-prices-to-rise-moderately-in-2021.md) | +3.0% | +21.5% |
| UREA | 2026-02-02 | [Fertilizer Prices Ease to Start the Year, but Urea and Trade Risks Remain in Focus - RFD-TV](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5724-fertilizer-prices-ease-to-start-the-year-but-urea-and-trade-risks-remain-in.md) | +10.1% | +28.6% |
| UREA | 2025-11-05 | [Global fertilizer prices expected to rise 21% in 2025 - Ecofin Agency](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6229-global-fertilizer-prices-expected-to-rise-21-in-2025-ecofin-agency.md) | -2.3% | -10.7% |

## Sources

- theirishwire.com: https://theirishwire.com/farm-terms-of-trade-fall-15-8-percent-2026/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.