# IKAR Raises Grain Export Forecast in Stress Scenario

> IKAR cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 grain exports to 49.5 million tonnes from 52.8 million, including a reduction in its wheat estimate to 39.5 million from 42 million tonnes. It raised its stress-scenario forecast, saying exports are currently tracking that scenario; October Russian wheat exports were estimated at 2.9 million tonnes, below typical levels.

- Date: 2026-11-06 · published 2026-11-07T13:37:56.288Z
- Category: report · region Russia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/86095-ikar-raises-grain-export-forecast-in-stress-scenario
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

The lower overall export outlook implies less Russian grain supply available to world markets, which could support wheat prices, although the higher stress-case estimate and ongoing shipments temper the impact.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-12-10 | [USDA forecasts lower US wheat stocks, raises corn exports in latest WASDE report \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26902-usda-forecasts-lower-us-wheat-stocks-raises-corn-exports-in-latest-wasde-report.md) | -0.2% | -0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2019-12-11 | [Australian wheat export forecast cut, imports tripled: WASDE - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55534-australian-wheat-export-forecast-cut-imports-tripled-wasde-grain-central.md) | +2.6% | +4.1% |
| WHEAT | 2019-06-18 | [Australia lowers wheat export forecast \| 2019-06-18  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58550-australia-lowers-wheat-export-forecast-2019-06-18-world-grain.md) | +7.1% | -3.2% |
| WHEAT | 2025-06-02 | [ABARES releases initial forecasts for winter crops - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24166-abares-releases-initial-forecasts-for-winter-crops-grain-central.md) | +2.9% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2022-10-24 | [Canada lifts grain price forecasts, as it upgrades wheat export hopes - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39181-canada-lifts-grain-price-forecasts-as-it-upgrades-wheat-export-hopes-grain.md) | -0.6% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2024-12-10 | [USDA forecasts lower US wheat stocks, raises corn exports in latest WASDE report \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26902-usda-forecasts-lower-us-wheat-stocks-raises-corn-exports-in-latest-wasde-report.md) | +1.6% | +2.9% |
| CORN | 2024-10-17 | [USDA forecasts rise in corn and sorghum exports amid global shortages \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27919-usda-forecasts-rise-in-corn-and-sorghum-exports-amid-global-shortages-feed-and.md) | +2.1% | +2.9% |
| CORN | 2026-10-01 | [COCERAL lowers EU grain output forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17429-coceral-lowers-eu-grain-output-forecast.md) | -1.4% | -6.4% |

## Sources

- oleoscope.com: https://oleoscope.com/analytics/ikar-povysil-ocenku-jeksportnogo-potencia/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.