# IKAR Raises Grain Export Potential Estimate Under Stress Scenario

> IKAR lowered its 2026/27 Russian grain export estimate to 49.5 million tonnes from 52.8 million tonnes, including a reduction in its wheat estimate to 39.5 million tonnes from 42 million tonnes. It raised its stress-scenario estimate for total grain exports to 36.5 million tonnes from 35 million tonnes, with wheat at 30 million tonnes versus 29 million tonnes previously, while noting exports are tracking that scenario.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-07T07:39:51.875Z
- Category: report · region Russia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/85742-ikar-raises-grain-export-potential-estimate-under-stress-scenario
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

The lower baseline outlook points to reduced Russian export availability, which can support global wheat prices. The higher stress-case estimate offers some counterweight but still implies exports well below the main forecast.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-09-11 | [ABARES cuts winter-crop estimate by 12pc in latest crop report - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62981-abares-cuts-winter-crop-estimate-by-12pc-in-latest-crop-report-grain-central.md) | -7.4% | -7.0% |
| WHEAT | 2017-09-19 | [ABARES slashes its grain estimate \| VIC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68914-abares-slashes-its-grain-estimate-vic.md) | -6.6% | +3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2024-12-10 | [USDA forecasts lower US wheat stocks, raises corn exports in latest WASDE report \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26902-usda-forecasts-lower-us-wheat-stocks-raises-corn-exports-in-latest-wasde-report.md) | -0.2% | -0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2020-03-23 | [COCERAL cuts 2020 EU grain estimate market report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54066-coceral-cuts-2020-eu-grain-estimate-market-report.md) | -6.6% | -4.4% |
| WHEAT | 2025-07-30 | [PIRSA cuts SA production estimate to 7.59Mt - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23724-pirsa-cuts-sa-production-estimate-to-7-59mt-grain-central.md) | -0.7% | -0.1% |
| CORN | 2024-12-10 | [USDA forecasts lower US wheat stocks, raises corn exports in latest WASDE report \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26902-usda-forecasts-lower-us-wheat-stocks-raises-corn-exports-in-latest-wasde-report.md) | +1.6% | +2.9% |
| CORN | 2026-07-25 | [USDA raises milk production estimates - Dairy Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18527-usda-raises-milk-production-estimates-dairy-star.md) | -4.8% | +0.5% |
| CORN | 2024-09-27 | [Horizons: New Crop Marketing Year, New Grain Export Potential - The Waterways Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16509-horizons-new-crop-marketing-year-new-grain-export-potential-the-waterways.md) | +2.2% | +1.0% |

## Sources

- selobiznes.ru: https://selobiznes.ru/ikar-povysil-ocenky-eksportnogo-potenciala-zerna-v-stressovom-scenarii/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.