# Class III milk futures drop $3: Is a rebound possible?

> Class III milk futures fell about $3 as USDA's May Milk Production report showed U.S. output up 2.3% year over year. The dairy herd rose to a record 9.665 million head, and production per cow kept climbing.

- Date: 2026-07-01 · published 2026-07-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/8572-class-iii-milk-futures-drop-3-is-a-rebound-possible
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Rising cow numbers and per-cow output are outpacing demand, which pressures cheese, butter and milk powder prices and Class III milk values that feed dairy margins and feed demand.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2026-07-01 | 1 | -3.2% | -3.8 | Same-day USDA May Milk Production report showed output up 2.3% y/y and a record herd, a bearish supply shock that directly explains the roughly $3 drop in Class III futures. |
| MILK | 2026-06-30 | 1 | -3.2% | -4.1 | Describes a roughly $3 drop in Class III futures tied to the USDA production report showing a record herd and higher yields, which fits the size of the move, though it is dated after 2026-06-30. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2020-09-03 | [August Class III milk price falls - Progressive Dairy \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51263-august-class-iii-milk-price-falls-progressive-dairy-ag-proud.md) | -0.7% | +20.3% |
| MILK | 2025-03-06 | [February 2025 Class II, III and IV milk prices lower \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4704-february-2025-class-ii-iii-and-iv-milk-prices-lower-ag-proud.md) | +1.8% | -6.1% |
| MILK | 2025-12-04 | [U.S. Milk Output Rises as Class Prices Drop Sharply - RFD-TV](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4085-u-s-milk-output-rises-as-class-prices-drop-sharply-rfd-tv.md) | +1.0% | -4.6% |
| MILK | 2025-07-31 | [Class III milk price stumbles, Class IV climbs in July \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23896-class-iii-milk-price-stumbles-class-iv-climbs-in-july-ag-proud.md) | +1.6% | +1.8% |
| MILK | 2022-08-31 | [August FMMO class prices drop but Class IV-Class III gap widens \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40036-august-fmmo-class-prices-drop-but-class-iv-class-iii-gap-widens-ag-proud.md) | -1.4% | -1.1% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/class-iii-milk-futures-prices-down-3-how-long-will-the-fall-continue-

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.