# Rice prices stay elevated on El Niño supply risks

> Rice prices are expected to remain elevated through the current quarter and into early 2027 as El Niño threatens production in South and Southeast Asia. BMI raised its 2026 average forecast for CBOT second-month rice futures to $14 per hundredweight from $12.90, citing stronger-than-expected third-quarter gains, while warning that futures have moved ahead of spot export indicators and could correct if crops fare better than feared.

- Date: 2026-11-07 · published 2026-11-07T06:14:44.871Z
- Category: weather · region South and Southeast Asia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/85587-rice-prices-stay-elevated-on-el-nino-supply-risks
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

El Niño-related dryness could tighten Asian rice supplies and sustain price pressure, although a favorable monsoon or expected U.S. harvest progress could trigger a futures pullback. The article concerns rice rather than a listed feed grain, so no feed-commodity price direction is assigned.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-09-28 | [Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino.md) | +1.1% | +1.7% |
| CORN | 2022-12-18 | [Tight grain, oilseed supplies to keep prices elevated - BusinessWorld Online](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8467-tight-grain-oilseed-supplies-to-keep-prices-elevated-businessworld-online.md) | +1.3% | +2.9% |
| CORN | 2018-08-10 | [El Niño forecast may mean better maize prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63455-el-nino-forecast-may-mean-better-maize-prices.md) | -7.5% | -9.1% |
| CORN | 2026-07-28 | [Panama Canal Growth Faces El Niño Shipping Risks - RFD-TV](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16803-panama-canal-growth-faces-el-nino-shipping-risks-rfd-tv.md) | -1.7% | +1.9% |
| CORN | 2021-04-26 | [Wheat price rises to highest in eight years on supply concerns \| Seeking Alpha](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47637-wheat-price-rises-to-highest-in-eight-years-on-supply-concerns-seeking-alpha.md) | +13.6% | +6.9% |
| SOY | 2023-09-28 | [Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino.md) | -2.3% | -1.2% |
| SOY | 2026-07-28 | [Panama Canal Growth Faces El Niño Shipping Risks - RFD-TV](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16803-panama-canal-growth-faces-el-nino-shipping-risks-rfd-tv.md) | -3.6% | +0.7% |
| SOY | 2021-04-26 | [Wheat price rises to highest in eight years on supply concerns \| Seeking Alpha](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47637-wheat-price-rises-to-highest-in-eight-years-on-supply-concerns-seeking-alpha.md) | +2.0% | -0.9% |

## Sources

- adalytica.com: https://adalytica.com/news/rice-prices-el-nino-supply-risks-3a0a1b2e

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.