# Bank of Thailand expects Thai inflation near 4% through Q1 2027 on higher oil and fresh food prices

> Thailand’s central bank expects inflation to remain near 4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, driven by higher oil and fresh-food prices. It kept the policy rate unchanged and said it would monitor risks related to the Middle East war and energy-price support measures.

- Date: 2026-11-06 · published 2026-11-07T06:10:31.696Z
- Category: macro · region Thailand · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/85547-bank-of-thailand-expects-thai-inflation-near-4-through-q1-2027-on-higher-oil
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Higher oil costs can raise transport and production expenses across supply chains, adding cost pressure for feed buyers; the expected later easing in inflation may limit the duration of that pressure. The rate hold provides no immediate additional policy-driven currency signal.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2022-11-10 | [Oil prices settle 1% higher on tepid U.S. inflation data \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38852-oil-prices-settle-1-higher-on-tepid-u-s-inflation-data-reuters.md) | -0.2% | -16.8% |
| WTI | 2021-10-15 | [Oil prices rise to three-year high on back of supply deficit forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44716-oil-prices-rise-to-three-year-high-on-back-of-supply-deficit-forecasts.md) | +1.5% | +0.1% |
| WTI | 2018-05-07 | [Dollar marches to 4-month high as oil rally points to higher inflation - MarketWatch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65209-dollar-marches-to-4-month-high-as-oil-rally-points-to-higher-inflation.md) | +1.4% | -7.1% |
| WTI | 2023-04-12 | [Oil rises 2% on lower-than-expected US inflation data \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36559-oil-rises-2-on-lower-than-expected-us-inflation-data-reuters.md) | -0.8% | -9.6% |
| WTI | 2018-04-30 | [Will oil prices be the trigger that wakes the inflation beast? - Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65433-will-oil-prices-be-the-trigger-that-wakes-the-inflation-beast-financial-post.md) | +2.4% | -0.3% |
| BRENT | 2026-07-23 | [Japan core inflation rate in June creeps up from 4-year low as higher oil prices bite](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18586-japan-core-inflation-rate-in-june-creeps-up-from-4-year-low-as-higher-oil.md) | -2.9% | -2.2% |
| BRENT | 2022-11-10 | [Oil prices settle 1% higher on tepid U.S. inflation data \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38852-oil-prices-settle-1-higher-on-tepid-u-s-inflation-data-reuters.md) | -0.1% | -16.9% |
| BRENT | 2021-10-15 | [Oil prices rise to three-year high on back of supply deficit forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44716-oil-prices-rise-to-three-year-high-on-back-of-supply-deficit-forecasts.md) | +0.8% | -0.9% |

## Sources

- ava.fund: https://ava.fund/news/bank-of-thailand-expects-thai-inflation-near-4-through-q1-2027-on-higher-oil-and-06112026

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.