# Fewer Pigs and Less Meal Hold Back China’s Soybean Imports

> The USDA office in Beijing raised its 2026/27 forecast for China’s soybean imports to 110 million tonnes, up from 108 million, but still below its 114 million-tonne estimate for 2025/26. It cited subdued crush growth, efforts to reduce import dependence, and weaker feed demand as China’s sow herd fell 10.7% year over year to 36.02 million head in September; the report also noted that extreme South American weather in 2027 could constrain exportable supplies.

- Date: 2026-11-06 · published 2026-11-07T03:22:19.970Z
- Category: trade · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/85481-fewer-pigs-and-less-meal-hold-back-china-s-soybean-imports
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller sow herd and lower-protein feed formulations limit soybean meal demand and China’s incentive to crush and import soybeans, weighing on SOY and SBM demand. Potential El Niño-related export constraints in South America could offset some of that bearish pressure.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2025-08-01 | [China’s soybean meal stockpiles rise, US soybean imports in doubt](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23301-china-s-soybean-meal-stockpiles-rise-us-soybean-imports-in-doubt.md) | +1.0% | +6.9% |
| SOY | 2025-06-09 | [Decline of China's Soybean Meal Market Amid Rising Imports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24312-decline-of-china-s-soybean-meal-market-amid-rising-imports.md) | +1.2% | -3.1% |
| SOY | 2024-01-17 | [China's Q1 Soybean Imports Slow to Four-Year Low as Pig Herds Shrink - Pork Business](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32120-china-s-q1-soybean-imports-slow-to-four-year-low-as-pig-herds-shrink-pork.md) | +1.0% | -3.3% |
| SOY | 2019-10-14 | [China September soybean imports ease on falling animal feed demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56562-china-september-soybean-imports-ease-on-falling-animal-feed-demand.md) | -0.2% | -1.8% |
| SOY | 2021-09-07 | [China's August soybean imports fall on flat demand - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45066-china-s-august-soybean-imports-fall-on-flat-demand-markets-business-recorder.md) | -0.8% | -3.7% |
| SBM | 2025-08-01 | [China’s soybean meal stockpiles rise, US soybean imports in doubt](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23301-china-s-soybean-meal-stockpiles-rise-us-soybean-imports-in-doubt.md) | +3.3% | +8.6% |
| SBM | 2019-09-05 | [China allows imports of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, sunflower meal and sugar beet pulp from Russia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57185-china-allows-imports-of-soybean-meal-rapeseed-meal-sunflower-meal-and-sugar.md) | -0.9% | +2.8% |
| SBM | 2025-06-09 | [Decline of China's Soybean Meal Market Amid Rising Imports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24312-decline-of-china-s-soybean-meal-market-amid-rising-imports.md) | -1.2% | -9.3% |

## Sources

- jornaldoagroonline.com.br: https://www.jornaldoagroonline.com.br/noticias/5825/menos-porcos-e-menos-farelo-seguram-a-importacao-de-soja-da-china

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.