# Powerful El Niño Forecast for 2026–27 Raises Agricultural Supply Risks

> Ecuador’s ERFEN committee says the 2026–27 El Niño could reach intensity comparable to the major 1982–83 and 1997–98 events. The forecast points to risks including flooding in parts of the South American Pacific coast, drought or heat stress in parts of Southeast Asia and Australia, and disrupted Pacific fisheries.

- Date: 2026-11-06 · published 2026-11-07T03:06:57.110Z
- Category: weather · region South America and Pacific · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/85401-powerful-el-nino-forecast-for-2026-27-raises-agricultural-supply-risks
- Commodities: [Fishmeal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/FISHMEAL.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Potential crop stress and reduced fish catches could tighten agricultural and fishmeal supplies over the coming months, supporting prices if the forecast materializes. The forecast is an early risk signal rather than evidence of realized production losses.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- FISHMEAL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-10-08 | [El Niño raises risks for agricultural commodities in the 4th quarter - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17054-el-nino-raises-risks-for-agricultural-commodities-in-the-4th-quarter-revista.md) | -2.4% | -5.9% |
| CORN | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -1.7% | -7.1% |
| CORN | 2026-09-10 | [Policy Backgrounder: El Niño Reshapes Global Agricultural Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17397-policy-backgrounder-el-nino-reshapes-global-agricultural-markets.md) | +4.3% | +1.1% |
| CORN | 2022-06-09 | [La Niña Is Forecast to Impact Global Agriculture for a Third Year in a Row](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40859-la-nina-is-forecast-to-impact-global-agriculture-for-a-third-year-in-a-row.md) | -1.6% | -0.5% |
| CORN | 2024-02-19 | [The El Niño weather pattern shapes 2024 commodity price forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31589-the-el-nino-weather-pattern-shapes-2024-commodity-price-forecast.md) | -0.3% | +7.1% |
| SOY | 2026-10-08 | [El Niño raises risks for agricultural commodities in the 4th quarter - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17054-el-nino-raises-risks-for-agricultural-commodities-in-the-4th-quarter-revista.md) | -0.8% | -5.1% |
| SOY | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -0.4% | -6.4% |
| SOY | 2022-06-09 | [La Niña Is Forecast to Impact Global Agriculture for a Third Year in a Row](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40859-la-nina-is-forecast-to-impact-global-agriculture-for-a-third-year-in-a-row.md) | -2.7% | -6.3% |

## Sources

- hamerintel.com: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/29457

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.