# Black Sea Port Operations to Be the Main Factor for Global Grain Prices in 2027 — Analyst

> Commonwealth Bank of Australia economist Dennis Voznesenski forecasts that global wheat prices could be 18–24% higher in 2027 if Black Sea ports remain closed; reopening early in the year would keep prices near current levels. In the closed-port scenario, Ukraine and Russia would retain about 60% of their pre-July 2026 export capacity, while wheat production among major exporters outside the two countries is forecast to fall 13% year over year. The outlook also cites planned changes in wheat acreage and drought risk in southern Russian grain regions, and says barley prices currently fit the bank’s port-reopening baseline.

- Date: 2026-11-06 · published 2026-11-07T01:40:06.581Z
- Category: logistics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/85390-black-sea-port-operations-to-be-the-main-factor-for-global-grain-prices-in-2027
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Continued port restrictions would limit Black Sea export flows and combine with lower production elsewhere to tighten global grain supply, supporting wheat and potentially barley prices. A reopening would ease that supply risk and keep prices nearer current levels.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-11-20 | [GRAINCORP GREED - WORKERS' STRIKE TO IMPACT PORT OPERATIONS FOR TWO DAYS - United Workers Union](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21975-graincorp-greed-workers-strike-to-impact-port-operations-for-two-days-united.md) | -1.2% | -1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2025-06-13 | [Nibulon to Export 1 Million Tons of Grain Via Black Sea Port of Chornomorsk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14200-nibulon-to-export-1-million-tons-of-grain-via-black-sea-port-of-chornomorsk.md) | +1.4% | -3.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-12 | [Russia Turns to Far East to Export Grain Amid Black Sea Strikes - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14083-russia-turns-to-far-east-to-export-grain-amid-black-sea-strikes-bloomberg.md) | -1.2% | -3.2% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-31 | [The battle to move Black Sea grain \| Miller Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14104-the-battle-to-move-black-sea-grain-miller-magazine.md) | -1.0% | +5.5% |
| WHEAT | 2024-02-02 | [Weekly highlights - What the Red Sea shipping disruptions mean for grain prices - Graintab](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31561-weekly-highlights-what-the-red-sea-shipping-disruptions-mean-for-grain-prices.md) | -1.6% | -8.9% |

## Sources

- latifundist.com: https://latifundist.com/novosti/71594-robota-chornomorskih-portiv-stane-golovnim-chinnikom-dlya-svitovih-tsin-na-zerno-u-2027-rotsi--analitik

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.