# El Nino risk seen underpriced by Barclays

> Barclays said soft-commodity markets reflect about a 20% chance of a strong El Niño, compared with 60% to 70% odds forecast by meteorologists. The weather pattern could bring drought to parts of Australia and Asia and rain to South America, putting crops including palm oil and wheat at risk; Australian forecasters said it may begin in July.

- Date: 2026-11-06 · published 2026-11-06T21:32:37.921Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/84999-el-nino-risk-seen-underpriced-by-barclays
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

If El Niño develops, weather-related production risks could tighten supplies and support prices for exposed crops. Markets may rise if they begin pricing in the higher probability cited by forecasters.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2026-08-11 | [El Nino, biodiesel demand support CPO prices despite rising stocks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15445-el-nino-biodiesel-demand-support-cpo-prices-despite-rising-stocks.md) | +0.4% | +7.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-08-25 | [All fired up about El Nino \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18017-all-fired-up-about-el-nino-the-star.md) | -0.3% | +1.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-08 | [Indonesia expects delayed rainy season due to El Nino](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34002-indonesia-expects-delayed-rainy-season-due-to-el-nino.md) | -1.5% | -7.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-29 | [Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees palm oil prices rising in 2024 as El Nino crimps domestic output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34219-indonesian-palm-oil-association-sees-palm-oil-prices-rising-in-2024-as-el-nino.md) | -4.5% | -3.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-28 | [Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino.md) | -2.3% | -3.9% |
| WHEAT | 2024-05-09 | [El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30149-el-nino-to-end-by-june-la-nina-seen-in-second-half-of-2024-says-u-s-forecaster.md) | +2.0% | +6.5% |
| WHEAT | 2024-05-09 | [El Nino and La Nina \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30153-el-nino-and-la-nina-red-river-farm-network.md) | +2.0% | +6.5% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-28 | [Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino.md) | -5.3% | -2.5% |

## Sources

- theedgemalaysia.com: https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/el-nino-risk-seen-underpriced-barclays

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.