# NOAA's El Nino winter outlook: 3 findings on temperature, rain and drought

> NOAA’s winter outlook points to warmer conditions in the northern United States and wetter conditions in the South, with El Niño likely to shape the season. USDA Climate Hubs put the odds of the event reaching very strong levels during the three months starting in November 2026 at 63%.

- Date: 2026-11-06 · published 2026-11-06T21:18:29.172Z
- Category: weather · region United States · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/84945-noaa-s-el-nino-winter-outlook-3-findings-on-temperature-rain-and-drought
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Regional shifts in winter precipitation and temperature can affect crop conditions and water availability, but the article provides no specific crop or production forecast. The resulting commodity-price impact is therefore unclear.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2025-11-22 | [Temperature Swings and Limited Precipitation Drive Drought Changes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13041-temperature-swings-and-limited-precipitation-drive-drought-changes.md) | +1.0% | +2.2% |
| CORN | 2025-09-08 | [The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Drought Outlook in the United States \| September 8, 2025 \| Drought.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22788-the-el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-drought-outlook-in-the-united-states.md) | -0.1% | +2.7% |
| CORN | 2025-03-25 | [The Growing Impact of ENSO on U.S. Extreme Drought and Flood Events - NOAA/AOML](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25500-the-growing-impact-of-enso-on-u-s-extreme-drought-and-flood-events-noaa-aoml.md) | -1.5% | +3.1% |
| CORN | 2018-10-22 | [Another mild winter? NOAA’s 2018-19 winter outlook \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62468-another-mild-winter-noaa-s-2018-19-winter-outlook-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -1.2% | -6.0% |
| CORN | 2025-04-21 | [El Nino shift: Impact on crop futures and global agricultural outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25021-el-nino-shift-impact-on-crop-futures-and-global-agricultural-outlook.md) | -0.1% | -5.5% |
| SOY | 2025-11-22 | [Temperature Swings and Limited Precipitation Drive Drought Changes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13041-temperature-swings-and-limited-precipitation-drive-drought-changes.md) | +0.3% | -6.4% |
| SOY | 2025-03-25 | [The Growing Impact of ENSO on U.S. Extreme Drought and Flood Events - NOAA/AOML](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25500-the-growing-impact-of-enso-on-u-s-extreme-drought-and-flood-events-noaa-aoml.md) | +0.7% | +2.8% |
| SOY | 2018-10-22 | [Another mild winter? NOAA’s 2018-19 winter outlook \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62468-another-mild-winter-noaa-s-2018-19-winter-outlook-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -1.4% | +4.1% |

## Sources

- qz.com: https://qz.com/noaa-winter-outlooks-el-nino

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.