# Shanghai Steel Union Analyst: The Second Quarter of Next Year Could Be a Key Observation Window for the Hog Industry

> An analyst said the second quarter of 2027 will be an important period to assess whether continued reductions in breeding-sow numbers translate into lower hog marketings and whether consumer demand recovers. China’s hog inventory at the end of the third quarter was 425.33 million head, down 2.6% year over year, while breeding sows totaled 36.02 million, down 10.7%; analysts expect the supply impact to become more visible around the second quarter.

- Date: 2026-11-06 · published 2026-11-06T18:53:57.478Z
- Category: report · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/84798-shanghai-steel-union-analyst-the-second-quarter-of-next-year-could-be-a-key
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md)

## Why it matters

If sow liquidation continues, hog supplies could tighten after the biological lag, supporting live-hog prices; a demand recovery would reinforce that effect. The timing and price impact remain uncertain, and near-term supplies are still ample.

## Read by commodity

- HOGS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| HOGS | 2024-09-24 | [What Could the Upcoming Hogs and Pigs Report Hold in Store and Implications for Pork Supply in 2025? - Pork Checkoff](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28476-what-could-the-upcoming-hogs-and-pigs-report-hold-in-store-and-implications-for.md) | -0.5% | -3.1% |
| HOGS | 2022-09-27 | [All eyes on Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39747-all-eyes-on-thursday-s-quarterly-hogs-and-pigs-report-brownfield-ag-news.md) | -2.2% | -2.6% |
| HOGS | 2022-09-29 | [US Sept. 1 Hog Inventory Down 1% From Year Ago](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39744-us-sept-1-hog-inventory-down-1-from-year-ago.md) | -0.2% | -1.3% |
| HOGS | 2025-03-31 | [Analysis of USDA Hogs and Pigs Report- JP Morgan - Swineweb.com - Complete Swine News, Markets, Commentary, and Technical Info](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25740-analysis-of-usda-hogs-and-pigs-report-jp-morgan-swineweb-com-complete-swine.md) | +0.2% | +3.6% |
| HOGS | 2022-01-26 | [NPPC: Current economic factors have led to higher pork prices, not industry concentration \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43290-nppc-current-economic-factors-have-led-to-higher-pork-prices-not-industry.md) | +2.5% | +24.2% |

## Sources

- news.mysteel.com: https://news.mysteel.com/a/26110614/4AC459D56C9911C8.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.