# Double exposure: How El Niño and the Iran crisis are eroding food security

> At an October 8 IFPRI seminar, researchers discussed how a record El Niño, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed Russia-Ukraine hostilities are combining to threaten food security. One speaker said grain prices had risen 23% since January 2026, energy prices 60%, and fertilizer prices 8%, while sulfur prices more than doubled and phosphate exports fell sharply.

- Date: 2026-11-06 · published 2026-11-06T15:16:21.379Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/84228-double-exposure-how-el-nino-and-the-iran-crisis-are-eroding-food-security
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [TSP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/TSP.md), [Phosphate Rock](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PHOSROCK.md)

## Why it matters

Hormuz and Black Sea disruptions constrain fertilizer and grain flows, while El Niño threatens crop output. Higher input and freight costs and potential supply losses are supportive for grains and fertilizer prices.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲
- TSP: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PHOSROCK: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-11 | [How Do the Latest Black Sea Attacks Affect Global Food Security?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14082-how-do-the-latest-black-sea-attacks-affect-global-food-security.md) | -1.3% | -4.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-06-15 | [The China-U.S. Food Security Puzzle - Li Zheng - CHINA US Focus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14926-the-china-u-s-food-security-puzzle-li-zheng-china-us-focus.md) | -2.3% | -13.8% |
| WHEAT | 2026-03-05 | [How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6255-how-the-iran-war-could-create-a-fertiliser-shock-an-often-ignored-global-risk.md) | +1.7% | +1.2% |
| WHEAT | 2023-02-14 | [Can Ukraine's Grain Corridor Ease the Global Food Crisis?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14415-can-ukraine-s-grain-corridor-ease-the-global-food-crisis.md) | -1.2% | -7.6% |
| WHEAT | 2022-04-06 | [The Ukraine Conflict and Other Factors Contributing to High Commodity Prices and Food Insecurity \| USDA Foreign Agricultural Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4033-the-ukraine-conflict-and-other-factors-contributing-to-high-commodity-prices.md) | -2.3% | +3.8% |
| CORN | 2026-09-11 | [How Do the Latest Black Sea Attacks Affect Global Food Security?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14082-how-do-the-latest-black-sea-attacks-affect-global-food-security.md) | +2.5% | -0.2% |
| CORN | 2022-03-31 | [How war, weather, and Covid-19 are rekindling the food vs. fuel debate \| The Counter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15413-how-war-weather-and-covid-19-are-rekindling-the-food-vs-fuel-debate-the-counter.md) | +4.1% | +5.9% |
| CORN | 2022-06-15 | [The China-U.S. Food Security Puzzle - Li Zheng - CHINA US Focus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14926-the-china-u-s-food-security-puzzle-li-zheng-china-us-focus.md) | -1.6% | +0.4% |

## Sources

- ifpri.org: https://www.ifpri.org/blog/double-exposure-how-el-nino-and-the-iran-crisis-are-eroding-food-security/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.