# The First Decline in Eleven Years: Asia’s Rice Market Enters an Unfamiliar Season

> USDA forecasts global rice production in 2026–27 at 533.1 million tonnes, down 12.6 million tonnes year over year and the lowest in three years, while consumption is projected to reach a record 538.8 million tonnes. FAO also forecasts lower output than the previous year; both outlooks point to falling stocks, although FAO says they could remain the second-highest on record.

- Date: 2026-11-06 · published 2026-11-06T12:16:20.149Z
- Category: report · region Asia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/83904-the-first-decline-in-eleven-years-asia-s-rice-market-enters-an-unfamiliar-season
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

Projected consumption above production and declining stocks point to a tighter global rice balance, which could support prices. Large remaining inventories may cushion the impact.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2024-02-23 | [Market Update: U.S. Rice Market - Every Year is Different - US Rice Producers](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31739-market-update-u-s-rice-market-every-year-is-different-us-rice-producers.md) | -3.5% | -5.4% |
| RICE | 2020-03-15 | [Tight stocks, positive market set the tone for this season - Rice Farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7549-tight-stocks-positive-market-set-the-tone-for-this-season-rice-farming.md) | +1.3% | +9.2% |
| RICE | 2023-04-19 | [Global rice shortage is set to be the biggest in 20 years](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36316-global-rice-shortage-is-set-to-be-the-biggest-in-20-years.md) | -2.5% | +0.4% |
| RICE | 2022-09-14 | [India’s ban will end trade in broken rice, says USDA - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39671-india-s-ban-will-end-trade-in-broken-rice-says-usda-the-hindubusinessline.md) | +1.2% | -4.6% |
| RICE | 2021-07-03 | [Rice market upate for the week ending July 2, 2021 - Rice Farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12902-rice-market-upate-for-the-week-ending-july-2-2021-rice-farming.md) | -1.4% | +5.1% |

## Sources

- agrospectrumasia.com: https://agrospectrumasia.com/features/29/4939/the-first-decline-in-eleven-years-asias-rice-market-enters-an-unfamiliar-season.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.