# USDA Lowers Ukraine Grain Export Forecasts Amid Black Sea Security Concerns

> The USDA cut Ukraine’s 2026/27 corn export forecast to 10.2 million tonnes from 22 million and lowered its wheat forecast to 8.7 million tonnes amid Black Sea security risks and attacks on logistics infrastructure. Despite slightly higher projected corn production, the agency expects record ending stocks, including 19.6 million tonnes of corn and 11.8 million tonnes of wheat; barley exports are forecast to rise slightly to 2 million tonnes.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-06T12:13:53.196Z
- Category: report · region Ukraine · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/83884-usda-lowers-ukraine-grain-export-forecasts-amid-black-sea-security-concerns
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Lower expected Ukrainian export flows tighten exportable supplies and could support global corn and wheat prices, while the large projected stock build signals surplus grain trapped by logistics and may cap local prices. Higher barley exports add some supply to that market.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2021-10-19 | [In October, the USDA reduced its grain crop and export forecasts for the Black Sea region 19.10.2021 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44402-in-october-the-usda-reduced-its-grain-crop-and-export-forecasts-for-the-black.md) | +0.7% | +10.3% |
| CORN | 2024-10-17 | [USDA forecasts rise in corn and sorghum exports amid global shortages \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27919-usda-forecasts-rise-in-corn-and-sorghum-exports-amid-global-shortages-feed-and.md) | +2.1% | +2.9% |
| CORN | 2024-12-10 | [USDA forecasts lower US wheat stocks, raises corn exports in latest WASDE report \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26902-usda-forecasts-lower-us-wheat-stocks-raises-corn-exports-in-latest-wasde-report.md) | +1.6% | +2.9% |
| CORN | 2026-10-01 | [COCERAL lowers EU grain output forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17429-coceral-lowers-eu-grain-output-forecast.md) | -1.4% | -6.4% |
| CORN | 2020-09-11 | [USDA Lowers Corn and Soybean Forecasts \| AgWired](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50974-usda-lowers-corn-and-soybean-forecasts-agwired.md) | +4.5% | +5.3% |
| WHEAT | 2021-10-19 | [In October, the USDA reduced its grain crop and export forecasts for the Black Sea region 19.10.2021 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44402-in-october-the-usda-reduced-its-grain-crop-and-export-forecasts-for-the-black.md) | +0.7% | +9.2% |
| WHEAT | 2024-12-10 | [USDA forecasts lower US wheat stocks, raises corn exports in latest WASDE report \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26902-usda-forecasts-lower-us-wheat-stocks-raises-corn-exports-in-latest-wasde-report.md) | -0.2% | -0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2026-10-01 | [COCERAL lowers EU grain output forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17429-coceral-lowers-eu-grain-output-forecast.md) | -3.1% | +1.1% |

## Sources

- insights.tridge.com: https://insights.tridge.com/speaker-product-news-reports/KJLyFXpzJzgKuB1Gqsm5QUKHGgR43AVdqLCqjrMnH4nX1pAhhVu7qP2j

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.