# Global wheat prices could rise 18–24% in 2027 if Black Sea ports remain closed

> A Commonwealth Bank of Australia economist estimates global wheat prices could rise 18–24% in 2027 if Ukrainian and Russian Black Sea ports remain closed to grain exports; prices could stay near current levels if shipping resumes early in the year. Under prolonged closures, the two countries would retain about 60% of their pre-July 2026 export capacity, while lower wheat output elsewhere and drought risk in southern Russia add supply concerns. The analysis also warns that feed barley prices could rise if port restrictions persist, and that malting barley premiums may widen.

- Date: 2026-11-06 · published 2026-11-06T12:06:22.781Z
- Category: logistics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/83785-global-wheat-prices-could-rise-18-24-in-2027-if-black-sea-ports-remain-closed
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Extended port closures would restrict exports from two major suppliers, while weaker production elsewhere would limit replacement supply, creating upside risk for wheat and barley prices. A reopening in early 2027 would reduce that pressure.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-02-24 | [Russian wheat prices hold as storms snarl Black Sea shipments \| World Ports Organization](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14137-russian-wheat-prices-hold-as-storms-snarl-black-sea-shipments-world-ports.md) | +0.6% | +0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2026-10-22 | [Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14076-russian-grain-exports-collapse-fourfold-as-black-sea-ports-stall.md) | -0.7% | — |
| WHEAT | 2022-03-09 | [Explainer: India's wheat exports surge as world prices soar \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42246-explainer-india-s-wheat-exports-surge-as-world-prices-soar-reuters.md) | -3.1% | +3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2023-01-31 | [Black Sea Watch: Grain flows ease on month as inspection delays remain unresolved \| World Ports Organization](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14422-black-sea-watch-grain-flows-ease-on-month-as-inspection-delays-remain.md) | +2.2% | -4.4% |
| WHEAT | 2026-03-10 | [Black Sea freight rates rise amid soaring bunker fuel prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20360-black-sea-freight-rates-rise-amid-soaring-bunker-fuel-prices.md) | -1.3% | -1.1% |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/global-wheat-prices-could-rise-18-24-in-2027-if-black-sea-ports-remain-closed/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.