# El Niño threatens inflation more than growth with the Philippines most exposed - Capital Economics

> Capital Economics said a strong El Niño is likely to have only a modest effect on emerging-market growth, but could increase inflation and worsen trade balances, with the Philippines most exposed. Its analysis estimates a 0.05–0.30 percentage-point drag on GDP growth; Philippine inflation was 7.8% year on year in October, while the peso had fallen past 64 per dollar and the central bank had raised rates by 125 basis points since April.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-06T03:15:48.704Z
- Category: weather · region Philippines · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/83328-el-nino-threatens-inflation-more-than-growth-with-the-philippines-most-exposed
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Weather-related food supply disruptions could raise import needs and food prices, worsening the Philippines’ trade balance and potentially prompting further rate hikes. The risk is supportive of prices for affected food commodities, though the article does not specify a particular commodity.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2025-10-09 | [Monitoring the return of La Niña \| Capital Economics](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22311-monitoring-the-return-of-la-nina-capital-economics.md) | -0.9% | +0.9% |
| CORN | 2026-07-28 | [Panama Canal Growth Faces El Niño Shipping Risks - RFD-TV](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16803-panama-canal-growth-faces-el-nino-shipping-risks-rfd-tv.md) | -1.7% | +1.9% |
| CORN | 2021-11-01 | [Wheat Price Surge Threatens to Speed Up Food Inflation - TT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7314-wheat-price-surge-threatens-to-speed-up-food-inflation-tt.md) | +1.6% | +3.4% |
| CORN | 2019-02-28 | [El Niño rising: Will it affect the Indian monsoon? \| Explained News - The Indian Express](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60534-el-nino-rising-will-it-affect-the-indian-monsoon-explained-news-the-indian.md) | -0.8% | +1.1% |
| CORN | 2023-04-27 | [Threat of El Niño looms, FAO prepares anticipatory actions with Members and partners](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36313-threat-of-el-nino-looms-fao-prepares-anticipatory-actions-with-members-and.md) | -0.9% | -4.0% |
| SOY | 2025-10-09 | [Monitoring the return of La Niña \| Capital Economics](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22311-monitoring-the-return-of-la-nina-capital-economics.md) | -2.2% | +8.8% |
| SOY | 2026-07-28 | [Panama Canal Growth Faces El Niño Shipping Risks - RFD-TV](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16803-panama-canal-growth-faces-el-nino-shipping-risks-rfd-tv.md) | -3.6% | +0.7% |
| SOY | 2022-10-10 | [Threat of food inflation looms as India grapples with delayed heavy rains](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39075-threat-of-food-inflation-looms-as-india-grapples-with-delayed-heavy-rains.md) | +1.2% | +6.2% |

## Sources

- intellinews.com: https://www.intellinews.com/el-ni-o-threatens-inflation-more-than-growth-with-the-philippines-most-exposed-capital-economics-482420/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.