# JPMorgan sees 1.4 million bpd oil surplus as exports recover

> JPMorgan estimated that the global oil market had a surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day in October, up from 1.1 million in September. Middle East exports recovered to about 20.7 million barrels per day in October from 9.8 million in March, while HSBC raised its Saudi Aramco fourth-quarter output forecast to 8.3 million barrels per day.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-06T03:15:38.282Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/83326-jpmorgan-sees-1-4-million-bpd-oil-surplus-as-exports-recover
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Recovering exports and rising production alongside weaker demand increase available supply, putting downward pressure on crude prices.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2019-08-16 | [OPEC sees bearish oil outlook for rest of 2019, points to 2020 surplus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57507-opec-sees-bearish-oil-outlook-for-rest-of-2019-points-to-2020-surplus.md) | +1.5% | +1.1% |
| WTI | 2018-08-31 | [Saudi crude oil output in August rises to 10.424 million b/d: OPEC source](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63444-saudi-crude-oil-output-in-august-rises-to-10-424-million-b-d-opec-source.md) | -3.6% | +4.2% |
| WTI | 2019-10-31 | [OPEC October oil output jumps on swift Saudi recovery: Reuters survey By Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56469-opec-october-oil-output-jumps-on-swift-saudi-recovery-reuters-survey-by-reuters.md) | +2.4% | +5.8% |
| WTI | 2025-10-01 | [World oil market to see higher surplus after OPEC+ hike, IEA says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22773-world-oil-market-to-see-higher-surplus-after-opec-hike-iea-says.md) | -1.0% | -3.5% |
| WTI | 2023-12-07 | [Oil market caught by surprise as US output surges](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32889-oil-market-caught-by-surprise-as-us-output-surges.md) | +0.1% | +7.0% |
| BRENT | 2019-08-16 | [OPEC sees bearish oil outlook for rest of 2019, points to 2020 surplus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57507-opec-sees-bearish-oil-outlook-for-rest-of-2019-points-to-2020-surplus.md) | +3.6% | +4.8% |
| BRENT | 2018-08-31 | [Saudi crude oil output in August rises to 10.424 million b/d: OPEC source](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63444-saudi-crude-oil-output-in-august-rises-to-10-424-million-b-d-opec-source.md) | -1.7% | +5.5% |
| BRENT | 2019-10-31 | [OPEC October oil output jumps on swift Saudi recovery: Reuters survey By Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56469-opec-october-oil-output-jumps-on-swift-saudi-recovery-reuters-survey-by-reuters.md) | +2.5% | +6.8% |

## Sources

- rigandrefinery.com: https://rigandrefinery.com/articles/jpmorgan-sees-1-4-million-bpd-oil-surplus-as-exports-recover

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.