# US Dairy Production Growth Drives Divergent Trends in Product Prices and Inventories

> US milk production rose 2.7% year on year to 19.3 billion pounds in Q3 2026, while the dairy herd reached 9.72 million head. Increased butter and cheese output contributed to inventory growth and year-on-year wholesale price declines of 29% for butter and 14% for cheese in September, while nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices rose on strong demand.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-06T00:17:40.654Z
- Category: report · region United States · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/82834-us-dairy-production-growth-drives-divergent-trends-in-product-prices-and
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Growing US milk and product supplies, alongside accumulating butter and cheese inventories, weigh on dairy prices; demand for protein ingredients is supporting dry milk and whey instead. Higher feed grain and protein-meal costs also squeeze dairy farm margins, potentially limiting future herd expansion.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2025-12-26 | [Dairy production and herd growth forecasted for 2026 but prices to drop \| Capital Press](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21492-dairy-production-and-herd-growth-forecasted-for-2026-but-prices-to-drop-capital.md) | -4.4% | -6.7% |
| MILK | 2019-02-21 | [December milk production growth slows, milk prices lower - Progressive Dairy \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60591-december-milk-production-growth-slows-milk-prices-lower-progressive-dairy-ag.md) | +9.3% | +6.6% |
| MILK | 2024-05-14 | [2024 All-Milk Price Sees Growth, More Cows and Production Predicted - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30251-2024-all-milk-price-sees-growth-more-cows-and-production-predicted-dairy-herd.md) | -0.0% | +5.7% |
| MILK | 2020-05-13 | [USDA milk production, price estimates inch higher; hay inventories are stronger - Progressive Dairy \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53132-usda-milk-production-price-estimates-inch-higher-hay-inventories-are-stronger.md) | +4.6% | +73.5% |
| MILK | 2026-07-20 | [USDA Dairy Outlook: Milk Production Grows While Prices Ease](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18530-usda-dairy-outlook-milk-production-grows-while-prices-ease.md) | +0.3% | +5.1% |

## Sources

- insights.tridge.com: https://insights.tridge.com/speaker-product-news-reports/KJLyFXpzJzgKuB1Gqsm5QUKHGgR43AVdqLe81rbGWCutbj64VqJtm1q7

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.