# Global Oil Surplus Widens to 1.4M Bpd as Gulf Exports Recover

> JPMorgan estimated that the global oil surplus widened from 1.1 million barrels per day in September to 1.4 million in October, as Middle East exports recovered and demand weakened. Middle East exports rose to about 20.7 million barrels per day in October from 9.8 million in March, while HSBC also raised its Saudi production forecast.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-06T00:15:03.692Z
- Category: trade · region Middle East · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/82809-global-oil-surplus-widens-to-1-4m-bpd-as-gulf-exports-recover
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Recovering export flows and weaker demand increase available crude and put downward pressure on oil prices, with potential knock-on relief for feed production and transport costs.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2019-08-07 | [Oil dives 4.7% on fears of a global slowdown](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12577-oil-dives-4-7-on-fears-of-a-global-slowdown.md) | +6.4% | +0.6% |
| WTI | 2018-01-30 | [Rising US oil exports, market disruption, Brent-WTI spread \| Wood Mackenzie](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67156-rising-us-oil-exports-market-disruption-brent-wti-spread-wood-mackenzie.md) | -2.3% | -4.1% |
| WTI | 2018-08-23 | [Oil slips as trade spat escalates; but crude stock decline supports U.S. crude](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63702-oil-slips-as-trade-spat-escalates-but-crude-stock-decline-supports-u-s-crude.md) | +2.6% | +4.3% |
| WTI | 2019-05-27 | [Oil under pressure from U.S.-China trade war, but OPEC cuts provide support, ETAuto](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59237-oil-under-pressure-from-u-s-china-trade-war-but-opec-cuts-provide-support-etauto.md) | -8.5% | -1.9% |
| WTI | 2019-08-02 | [Column: Oil plunges as U.S. tariff threat boosts probability of recession](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8494-column-oil-plunges-as-u-s-tariff-threat-boosts-probability-of-recession.md) | -2.2% | +5.5% |
| BRENT | 2019-08-07 | [Oil dives 4.7% on fears of a global slowdown](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12577-oil-dives-4-7-on-fears-of-a-global-slowdown.md) | +3.1% | -1.2% |
| BRENT | 2018-08-23 | [Oil slips as trade spat escalates; but crude stock decline supports U.S. crude](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63702-oil-slips-as-trade-spat-escalates-but-crude-stock-decline-supports-u-s-crude.md) | +3.7% | +7.5% |
| BRENT | 2019-08-02 | [Column: Oil plunges as U.S. tariff threat boosts probability of recession](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8494-column-oil-plunges-as-u-s-tariff-threat-boosts-probability-of-recession.md) | -7.9% | -1.4% |

## Sources

- oilmonster.com: https://www.oilmonster.com/article/global-oil-surplus-widens-to-14m-bpd-as-gulf-exports-recover/8762

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.