# El Niño Holds at +2.5 as Normal Rain Keeps Harvests Moving

> The ONI reading holds at +2.5, placing the climate in El Niño territory. Rainfall across the Malaysian and Indonesian palm belts is broadly normal, and MPOB data for September showed CPO output of 2,116,950 tonnes, up 16.5% month on month, with closing stocks of 2,163,173 tonnes.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T21:12:32.427Z
- Category: weather · region Southeast Asia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/82455-el-nino-holds-at-2-5-as-normal-rain-keeps-harvests-moving
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Normal rain keeps near-term harvesting and transport on schedule, but El Niño's yield effect typically lags six to twelve months, so the bigger supply risk falls on 2027 output. Current peak-cycle stocks are a near-term bearish factor for palm oil prices.

## Read by commodity

- PALMOIL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2017-08-11 | [El Niño Outlook for August 2017](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69374-el-nino-outlook-for-august-2017.md) | -0.1% | +6.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-09-27 | [Seasonal Outlook: Haze Update – El Niño Ready Nations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62945-seasonal-outlook-haze-update-el-nino-ready-nations.md) | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-06-13 | [El Niño WATCH—everything you ever wanted to know but were afraid to ask - Social Media Blog - Bureau of Meteorology](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70411-el-nino-watch-everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know-but-were-afraid-to-ask-social.md) | +0.6% | +3.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-03-03 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2026) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20089-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2026-world-reliefweb.md) | +6.5% | +7.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-11-01 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: El Niño Remains Neutral](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55983-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | +12.8% | +16.7% |

## Sources

- analytics.palmoileconomics.com: https://analytics.palmoileconomics.com/news/2026-11-05-el-ni-o-holds-at-2-5-as-normal-rain-keeps-harves

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.