# El Niño raises concern over heat and irregular rain at start of soybean season in Matopiba

> The NOAA Climate Prediction Center put the Niño 3.4 sea surface anomaly at +2.47°C in October 2026 and sees strong to very strong conditions through January to March 2027. Above-average heat and uneven rain are slowing soil moisture recovery in Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia during soybean planting. The CPC gives 83% odds that the current event exceeds all El Niños since 1950 in the October to December period.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T21:10:52.126Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/82445-el-nino-raises-concern-over-heat-and-irregular-rain-at-start-of-soybean-season
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Planting delays in Matopiba could trim Brazil's soybean supply later in the season. The strong El Niño outlook keeps weather risk priced into soybean markets, though the immediate impact is limited.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2022-12-14 | [Concerns over Argentine soybean crop raises meal prices in Brazil - DatamarNews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38321-concerns-over-argentine-soybean-crop-raises-meal-prices-in-brazil-datamarnews.md) | -0.1% | +3.4% |
| SOY | 2026-10-14 | [El Niño and Brazil’s Second-Season Corn: Should We Be Concerned?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13413-el-nino-and-brazil-s-second-season-corn-should-we-be-concerned.md) | -2.3% | — |
| SOY | 2024-05-06 | [Rains in the South concern players; demand for soybean meal increases – Eita Gota](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6449-rains-in-the-south-concern-players-demand-for-soybean-meal-increases-eita-gota.md) | +0.3% | -1.4% |
| SOY | 2026-02-11 | [Lack of rain pressures corn and soybeans in the South](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13451-lack-of-rain-pressures-corn-and-soybeans-in-the-south.md) | +1.0% | +6.9% |
| SOY | 2021-01-01 | [The Impact of Preseason La Niña Episodes on Corn and Soybean Yields in Brazil and Argentina](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49571-the-impact-of-preseason-la-nina-episodes-on-corn-and-soybean-yields-in-brazil.md) | +4.6% | +3.8% |

## Sources

- noticiasagricolas.com.br: https://www.noticiasagricolas.com.br/videos/tempo-e-clima/430897-el-nino-forte-aumenta-preocupacao-com-calor-e-irregularidade-das-chuvas-no-inicio-da-safra-de-soja-no-matopiba.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.