# El Niño threatens Brazil soybean crop with potential loss of 17 million tonnes

> A Serasa Experian study estimates a severe El Niño could remove 17.6 million tonnes of Brazilian soybeans, about 10% of output, compared with a neutral climate. The potential value at risk is R$33 billion. The study uses the 2023/24 El Niño season as its base.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T21:10:51.819Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/82442-el-nino-threatens-brazil-soybean-crop-with-potential-loss-of-17-million-tonnes
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A loss of this size would cut Brazil's export supply, the world's largest, and support soybean, meal and oil prices. The figure is a scenario estimate, not a forecast, so the price impact is meaningful but not immediate.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2025-12-10 | [2025/26 Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 176.0 Million Tons](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13456-2025-26-brazil-soybean-estimate-unchanged-at-176-0-million-tons.md) | -2.3% | -3.7% |
| SOY | 2026-08-05 | [Dry Spell in Key Brazilian Soybean Regions Threatens Timely Planting of 2026/27 Crop — BRZ News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13422-dry-spell-in-key-brazilian-soybean-regions-threatens-timely-planting-of-2026-27.md) | -0.6% | +13.1% |
| SOY | 2021-03-05 | [March Rains Sound Alarm of Crop Loss in Brazil Soybean Belt - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47962-march-rains-sound-alarm-of-crop-loss-in-brazil-soybean-belt-bloomberg.md) | +0.0% | -0.9% |
| SOY | 2023-02-14 | [Brazil drought threatening national output potential, southern farmers say](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13664-brazil-drought-threatening-national-output-potential-southern-farmers-say.md) | +0.4% | -2.8% |
| SOY | 2021-01-01 | [The Impact of Preseason La Niña Episodes on Corn and Soybean Yields in Brazil and Argentina](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49571-the-impact-of-preseason-la-nina-episodes-on-corn-and-soybean-yields-in-brazil.md) | +4.6% | +3.8% |
| SBM | 2025-12-10 | [2025/26 Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 176.0 Million Tons](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13456-2025-26-brazil-soybean-estimate-unchanged-at-176-0-million-tons.md) | +1.2% | +1.0% |
| SBM | 2026-08-05 | [Dry Spell in Key Brazilian Soybean Regions Threatens Timely Planting of 2026/27 Crop — BRZ News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13422-dry-spell-in-key-brazilian-soybean-regions-threatens-timely-planting-of-2026-27.md) | -1.8% | +10.3% |
| SBM | 2023-02-14 | [Brazil drought threatening national output potential, southern farmers say](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13664-brazil-drought-threatening-national-output-potential-southern-farmers-say.md) | -2.3% | -2.7% |

## Sources

- noticiasagricolas.com.br: https://www.noticiasagricolas.com.br/noticias/agronegocio/430876-el-nino-ameaca-safra-brasileira-de-soja-com-potencial-perda-de-17-milhoes-de-toneladas-e-prejuizo-de-r-33-bilhoes.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.